Earnings Tricks and Fed Treats

October 28, 2019

  The corporate earnings season has so far been less negative than originally anticipated. Of the 199 companies that have reported 3Q earnings, 78% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations, and 15% have reported below expectations. This has improved current earnings estimates for the quarter to a 2.0% decline in year/year earnings on 3.4% …

Stocktober

October 21, 2019

  The corporate earnings reporting season is underway. Earnings reports were generally upbeat last week and the S&P 500 Index responded with a positive return. Of the 73 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third earnings, 84% have exceeded expectations, 4% have met expectations and 12% have reported below expectations. Current expectation is …

Tariff Reprieve

October 14, 2019

  The S&P 500 Index snapped a three-week decline on optimism the U.S. and China were making progress on the trade dispute. In an announcement on Friday, the U.S. agreed not to enact the scheduled October 15th tariff increases on $250 billion of goods in exchange for China agreeing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. …

Parsing the Data

October 7, 2019

  The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …

Quarter End

September 30, 2019

  The equity market declined on Friday afternoon for the second consecutive week following a report that the U.S. was considering banning U.S. pensions from investing in Chinese stocks and potentially delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges. Friday’s lower finish left the S&P 500 Index down 1.0% for the week. The use of international fund …

Liquidity

September 23, 2019

  The equity market declined on Friday afternoon following a report that a Chinese delegation canceled a scheduled trip to visit farms in Montana and Nebraska to return to China early. That news was enough to raise some doubt on the current progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China. Friday’s lower finish left …

Olive Branches

September 16, 2019

  Some small concessions were made in the U.S.— China trade dispute with both sides taking steps to diffuse any further escalation. The U.S. said it would delay a tariff increase on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th out of respect for the People’s Republic of China celebrating its 70th anniversary. …

Trade Optimism Trumps Mixed Data

September 9, 2019

  Last week produced a mix of economic reports that presented a modestly softer economy, but one that is not imminent danger of recession. Some of the softness, such as the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing Index and the weaker Employment Report, can be attributed to the continuing trade issues with China. Once the announcement …

Monitoring Headlines

September 2, 2019

  The equity markets rebounded this past week to finish with their first weekly gain in five weeks. Optimism on international trade between the U.S. and China was the major catalyst for the weekly gain in stocks. With no significant corporate earnings news, we’ve stressed that economic and geopolitical news is likely to set market …

Volatile Trade

August 26, 2019

  The final significant week of second quarter earnings brought upside surprises from several big retail companies, but an escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China overshadowed everything and ended the week on the downside for the major equity indices. On second quarter earnings, 482 companies (>96%) in the S&P 500 have reported quarter-to-date. …