The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …
The advance report on First Quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) was reported at +3.2%. This was an upside surprise to the 2% widely anticipated by most economists. Part of the surprise was in net trade (exports versus imports) which was refreshing to see given the concern over the U.S.—China trade standoff. Personal consumption …
Earnings reports have been a positive surprise so far. For the S&P 500, 77 out of 500 companies have reported with 78% beating expectations, 5% matching and 17% below expectations. The 48 company earnings reports from the past week have raised the combined (reported and estimated) earnings growth for the quarter from -2.3% to …
The 2.9% move in the S&P 500 Index this past week erased the previous week’s 2.0% decline. The market shrugged off global economic worries and posted its best single week since last November. The U.S.-China trade meter shifted back to optimism this week. Oil continued its advance as well. WTI Crude was +4.4% for the …
Continue reading “Upbeat Week Heading into Next Fed Meeting”
The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.4% last week, its fifth consecutive weekly increase. Crude oil fell 2.5% for the week. As we near the end of the quarterly earnings season, much of the fundamental news from reporting companies is out and speculation on how current macro and industry data may impact earnings for first quarter …
Continue reading “Wrapping up Earnings and Focusing on Economic Data”
A deal was struck to avoid a resumption of the partial U.S. government shutdown last week. Macroeconomic Crisis One averted, even though there may be political ramifications of the President’s decision to push ahead with funding the wall for the U.S. southern border through emergency measures. We’re much more concerned about economics, business, and investing, …
A Dissipating “Axis of Worry” Many of the concerns that caused the steep drop in the stock market in the fourth quarter of 2018 have started to dissipate. The combination of rising interest rates, a trade dispute between the U.S. and China, lower oil prices, and the U.S. government shutdown all rolled into what we …
Individuals we speak with often classify their investment risk tolerance with adjectives such as “Conservative”, “Moderate”, or “Aggressive”. These self-classifications can be highly subjective and may not correctly capture the amount of risk someone is actually comfortable taking. One Moderate investor may feel uncomfortable if their portfolio fell 5% while another may not feel uncomfortable …
Continue reading “Are You Taking the Right Amount of Investment Risk?”
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