The corporate earnings reporting season is underway. Earnings reports were generally upbeat last week and the S&P 500 Index responded with a positive return. Of the 73 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third earnings, 84% have exceeded expectations, 4% have met expectations and 12% have reported below expectations. Current expectation is …
Tariff Reprieve
The S&P 500 Index snapped a three-week decline on optimism the U.S. and China were making progress on the trade dispute. In an announcement on Friday, the U.S. agreed not to enact the scheduled October 15th tariff increases on $250 billion of goods in exchange for China agreeing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. …
Parsing the Data
The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …
Quarter End
The equity market declined on Friday afternoon for the second consecutive week following a report that the U.S. was considering banning U.S. pensions from investing in Chinese stocks and potentially delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges. Friday’s lower finish left the S&P 500 Index down 1.0% for the week. The use of international fund …
Trade War Heads South
Investors were surprised late last week by the announcement that the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and gradually increase them until the flow of illegal immigrants stopped. The economic and political uncertainty of this policy added to the uncertainty currently in the market from the U.S.—China trade …
Hittin’ the Road
Despite increased tensions with Iran and the start of the summer driving season, crude oil had its steepest decline since the late December lows, down 6.6% for the week. The equity markets also extended their recent decline with most averages adding to multi-week declines. As a follow-up to last week’s comments on the American …
Bearish Sentiment Makes a Comeback
A breakdown in US – China trade talks and some saber rattling with Iran dominated headlines this past week. Investors appear to be growing weary of the headline noise, especially with China. The thought that a conclusion to China trade is no longer a “done deal” is inserting some pessimism into investors’ psyche. This …
Trade Worries Dominate Headlines
U.S.-China Trade dominated the headlines last week. As trade talks stalled, the U.S. increased the previously announced tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. The U.S. is also investigating options for tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese-made goods not currently under tariffs. The Chinese Vice Premier spent last week in the …
Fed Stays on Hold
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …
A Positive Start to Quarterly Earnings
Earnings reports have been a positive surprise so far. For the S&P 500, 77 out of 500 companies have reported with 78% beating expectations, 5% matching and 17% below expectations. The 48 company earnings reports from the past week have raised the combined (reported and estimated) earnings growth for the quarter from -2.3% to …