Heading into the tail-end of the second quarter earnings season, 441 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings with 82% reporting results above consensus. This is better than the long-term average of 64.9%. A fourth consecutive better than expected week has moved current consensus for second quarter S&P 500 earnings to down 31.7% …
Parsing the Data
The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …
Trade Optimism Trumps Mixed Data
Last week produced a mix of economic reports that presented a modestly softer economy, but one that is not imminent danger of recession. Some of the softness, such as the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing Index and the weaker Employment Report, can be attributed to the continuing trade issues with China. Once the announcement …
Monitoring Headlines
The equity markets rebounded this past week to finish with their first weekly gain in five weeks. Optimism on international trade between the U.S. and China was the major catalyst for the weekly gain in stocks. With no significant corporate earnings news, we’ve stressed that economic and geopolitical news is likely to set market …
Whipsaw
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement to lower its target range for the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move was a “midcycle adjustment to policy” and that future rate cuts were not a guarantee. Despite the Fed Chairman’s comments, the markets are currently forecasting an …