A well below forecast employment report may allow the Federal Reserve to be judicious when it decides to start tapering monthly bond purchases. The August employment report showed an increase of only 235,000 net new jobs versus expectations of 725,000 to 750,000 jobs. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +0.6%, the NASDAQ +1.4% …
Calming Effects
The greatly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday appeared to have a calming and positive impact on markets. He reiterated the comments of several Fed officials who said that economic conditions have improved, and the Fed can begin tapering its monthly bond purchases some time …
Dog Days
A geopolitical crisis in Afghanistan and hints from the Federal Reserve that it could soon begin tapering monthly bond purchases combined to lead the equity markets to a negative week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.3% and the Dow –1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.260% …
Letting off Steam
While inflation sparked by the rapid economic rebound is still elevated, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports may suggest the surge is losing some steam. We are not out of the woods yet, but the concern of runaway inflation may be overdone. The S&P 500 Index closed the …
Navigating the Waters
We head into the end of the first quarter with all three major U.S. equity indices positive for the year. We are fortunate to be in a better economic and social environment versus this time last year when the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was driving equity markets lower and forcing people into …
Fed Speak
The Federal Reserve acknowledged some improvement in the economy in its Wednesday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement, while stating that inflation remains below target. The economic improvement versus inflation battle continues in the fixed income and equity markets. This past week “Team Inflation” won as the equity markets declined and bond yields …
Springing Forward
Springing Forward! The equity markets moved to the upside last week. Investors seem to be a little more comfortable with bond yields. Two inflation measures for February, the CPI and PPI, showed an increase in inflation mainly tied to increasing energy prices. The February CPI showed 12-month rate of inflation for consumer goods and …
Tracking the Consumer
Optimism on U.S.—China trade helped markets extend gains for the third straight week. Stocks are at record levels as the third quarter earnings season slows into its final weeks. Of the 446 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported 3Q earnings, 74% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations and 19% have reported …
Tariff Reprieve
The S&P 500 Index snapped a three-week decline on optimism the U.S. and China were making progress on the trade dispute. In an announcement on Friday, the U.S. agreed not to enact the scheduled October 15th tariff increases on $250 billion of goods in exchange for China agreeing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. …
Parsing the Data
The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …