Measuring the Economy

July 27, 2020

  We’re expecting a great deal of news flow this week with 189 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report second quarter earnings, the Federal Reserve meeting taking place on Wednesday, and the first look at Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scheduled for release on Thursday. Additionally, the enhanced unemployment benefits are …

Earnings and Sales

July 20, 2020

  The second quarter earnings reporting period kicked-off last week. While earnings should be significantly lower for many companies due to the COVID related shutdowns, some favorable results relative to these dire expectations pushed the S&P 500 Index to an up week. Of the 47 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported second …

Show Us Your Cards

July 13, 2020

  This week we will start to see the companies reporting second quarter earnings show us their cards. Due to uncertain outlooks at the height of the COVID back in April, more than 180 companies in the S&P 500 Index declined to provide earnings guidance, so we may have a wider range of outcomes than …

Heavy Lifting

July 6, 2020

  Positive economic data continues to provide an optimistic catalyst to the stock market. The June ISM Manufacturing Index moved back up to 52.6 indicating economic expansion. The June employment report showed nonfarm payrolls of 4.8 million which were well ahead of expectations and built on the 2.7 million jobs created in May. The unemployment …

Half Year, Half Full?

June 29, 2020

  As we mark the halfway point in 2020, we have seen some rapid fluctuations between optimism and pessimism over the course of six months. We entered the year with a strong economy, a robust stock market, and a Federal Reserve that was committed to economic expansion. We have since witnessed the social and economic …

Tug O’ War

June 22, 2020

  The tug o’ war between economic improvement and the resurgence of COVID-19 has the equity market gyrating back and forth depending which sentiment rules the headlines each day. We have a few weeks before the second quarter earnings reports start, so the economic data and COVID headlines are the main catalysts for market direction. …

Markets Take a Pause

June 15, 2020

  A combination of concern regarding a re-acceleration of COVID-19 cases and a natural tendency for a pause once the market regained its beginning year levels resulted in a decline in major market averages last week. The Federal Reserve which has pledged economic support throughout the COVID-19 crisis left short-term interest rates unchanged near zero …

Down and Back

June 11, 2020

  While the economy still has room for improvement, the stock market has staged an impressive recovery. As a supplement to our Weekly Market Commentary, here is an additional report outlining our thoughts around the 2020 market decline and recent recovery. The U.S. economy is in a recession in the first half of 2020, but …

Up Off the Mat

June 8, 2020

  While the economy still has room for improvement, the stock market has staged an impressive recovery. Coming off the March low, the S&P 500 Index has advanced 45%. The containment of COVID-19, Federal Reserve’s actions to provide liquidity into the financial system, and continued incremental positive news on the opening of the economy have …

Consumers, Start your Engines

June 1, 2020

  Despite the widespread economic displacement from the COVID-19 lockdown, an optimistic case can be made for a rebound in consumer activity over the next few months. The U.S. consumer accounts for approximately two-thirds of economic activity, so a healthy consumer is the engine of the U.S. economy. With the continued phase-in of activity, workers …