Global equity markets had their worst week in several years last week. The weekly decline, due to economic concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), has pulled all major stock indices into negative territory for the year. Market volatility, which included several large intra-day swings, is indicative of the uncertainty. In our Dissecting …
Risk On / Risk Off
Continued spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) led stocks to the downside late last week. News of the virus also spreading outside of China to countries such as Italy has brought additional concern to investors trying to understand the potential economic impact of the outbreak. We view the issue as transitory. While the first quarter …
Earnings Matter
Despite concerns over impact of the coronavirus, the equity markets staged a recovery back toward record levels last week. We believe the significant story here is corporate earnings. With 387 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported fourth quarter 2019 earnings, 72% have exceeded expectations, 10% have been in-line and 19% have been …
Feeling Better
Coronavirus fear ebbed early in the week allowing investors to focus on good corporate earnings growth and a strong January employment report. Deaths in China from the coronavirus have now surpassed SARS (>811) but when considering the current U.S. flu season has seen over 10,000 deaths we can see things in better perspective. Still, …
Groundhog
Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, predicted an early Spring over the weekend. We’d take caution with the prediction as the groundhog has only been about 40% correct historically on his weather predictions. He predicted an early Spring last year that did not prove correct. Likewise, not many market prognosticators know the extent of the coronavirus …
Gone Viral
The enthusiasm from the Phase One U.S. – China trade agreement was quickly tempered as fear of the economic impact of the Coronavirus on global growth seeped into the markets. Major market averages saw their first weekly decline for the year. Despite the headline health scare, corporate earnings reporting season rolls on. With 85 …
Phase One Trade Agreement Signed
A good start to the fourth quarter earnings reporting season and the signing of the Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China combined to maintain positive equity market momentum this past week. With 44 companies having reported fourth quarter earnings, 70% have exceeded expectations, 7% have reported in-line, and 23% have reported …
Focus Returns to Corporate Earnings
After a short period of volatility surrounding U.S.—Iran tensions, the market continued its current climb once investors assessed that the situation was deescalating. Geopolitical tensions aside, investors can return their focus to company fundamentals this week as the fourth quarter corporate earnings season kicks off. Twenty-six companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled …
Off to the Races
Momentum from year-end continued into the new year until U.S. – Iran tension reached a boiling point. The typical Middle East worry trade followed with oil, gold, Treasury bonds, bond proxies, and defense industry stocks to the positive in an otherwise down market. The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December meeting. The …
Roaring into the 20’s
Barring any significant disruption happening over the next two days, the equity market will be closing 2019 at, or near, record highs. Many of the worries from a year ago, such as global trade and a hawkish Federal Reserve, have dissipated. Consumer spending has been a key component of economic growth for the year. …