Unyielding

April 25, 2022

  A relatively good week for corporate earnings was overshadowed by Federal Reserve jawboning pointing to an almost certain 0.50% rate increase at the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The S&P 500 ended the week -2.7%, the Dow was -1.8%, and the NASDAQ was -3.9%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to …

Home Stand

April 18, 2022

  A mixed start to first quarter earnings reporting and two key inflation reports sent equity markets lower last week. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -2.1%, the Dow was -0.8%, and the NASDAQ was -3.0%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 2.828% at Thursday’s close versus 2.704% the previous week. The …

Moneyball

April 11, 2022

  The Federal Reserve’s plan to aggressively stem inflation pressured equity markets last week. The S&P 500 ended the week -1.2%, the Dow was -0.2%, and the NASDAQ was -3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 2.704% at Friday’s close versus 2.390% the previous week. The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield returned …

Out Like a Lamb

April 4, 2022

  This week ended the first negative quarter for the equity markets since the onset of COVID which caused a decline in the first quarter of 2020. The S&P 500 Index has produced three consecutive positive weekly returns since the quarter lows in early March. The S&P 500 ended the week +0.1%, the Dow was …

Living with Uncertainty

March 28, 2022

  Equity market investors appear to be learning how to live with higher interest rates and prospects for a drawn-out engagement between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +1.8%, the Dow was +0.3%, and the NASDAQ was +2.3%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased to 2.488% at Friday’s close versus …

First Hike

March 21, 2022

  Fear may have peaked last week, and investor risk appetite may have been reinvigorated, as the Federal Reserve laid out a clear tightening plan tied to combating high inflation and optimism about the economy. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +6.2%, the Dow was +5.5%, and the NASDAQ was +8.4%. It was the …

Goldilocks

November 4, 2019

  Lots of positives stacked up this past week with the Fed lowering short-term interest rates by 0.25%, a stronger than expected employment report, and continued progress on U.S. – China trade. These along with good third quarter earnings reports pushed the S&P 500 into record territory. The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term target rate …

Earnings Tricks and Fed Treats

October 28, 2019

  The corporate earnings season has so far been less negative than originally anticipated. Of the 199 companies that have reported 3Q earnings, 78% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations, and 15% have reported below expectations. This has improved current earnings estimates for the quarter to a 2.0% decline in year/year earnings on 3.4% …

Liquidity

September 23, 2019

  The equity market declined on Friday afternoon following a report that a Chinese delegation canceled a scheduled trip to visit farms in Montana and Nebraska to return to China early. That news was enough to raise some doubt on the current progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China. Friday’s lower finish left …

Olive Branches

September 16, 2019

  Some small concessions were made in the U.S.— China trade dispute with both sides taking steps to diffuse any further escalation. The U.S. said it would delay a tariff increase on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th out of respect for the People’s Republic of China celebrating its 70th anniversary. …

Flip Flop

August 19, 2019

  It was a volatile week in the stock and bond markets with each day providing a different catalyst to change market direction. The week started with continued concern over U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan exchange rate and trade/tariff issues. Optimism reigned on Tuesday as the White House announced a delay to some tariffs until …

Whipsaw

August 5, 2019

  Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement to lower its target range for the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move was a “midcycle adjustment to policy” and that future rate cuts were not a guarantee. Despite the Fed Chairman’s comments, the markets are currently forecasting an …

Decision Point

July 29, 2019

  On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make a decision on its interest rate target. The current market probabilities are for a reduction of 0.25% which would bring the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 2.00% to 2.25%. We can attribute most of the stock market tailwind over the past …