Living with Uncertainty

March 28, 2022

  Equity market investors appear to be learning how to live with higher interest rates and prospects for a drawn-out engagement between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +1.8%, the Dow was +0.3%, and the NASDAQ was +2.3%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased to 2.488% at Friday’s close versus …

First Hike

March 21, 2022

  Fear may have peaked last week, and investor risk appetite may have been reinvigorated, as the Federal Reserve laid out a clear tightening plan tied to combating high inflation and optimism about the economy. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +6.2%, the Dow was +5.5%, and the NASDAQ was +8.4%. It was the …

Pump Pain

March 14, 2022

  Geopolitical events continued to dominate headlines last week along with the economic realities of gasoline averaging over $4.00/gallon nationwide for the first time in history. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -2.8%, the Dow was -1.9%, and the NASDAQ was -3.9%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased to 1.997% at Friday’s close …

Advances and Declines

March 7, 2022

  Russia’s continued advance into Ukraine caused a market decline for the week, despite a strong employment report for February and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that he supports a 0.25% increase in the Fed funds rate this month rather than 0.50%. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -1.2%, the Dow was -1.2%, …

Spoils of War

February 28, 2022

  Downward market pressure early in the week reversed once the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Markets began climbing the Wall of Worry we mentioned last week. The situation in Ukraine may continue to dominate headlines this week, but the U.S. economy comes back centerstage with the February Employment Report on Friday. President Biden is …

Wall of Worry

February 21, 2022

  Concern over tensions between Russia-Ukraine, and impact of inflation and Fed actions in the U.S. have built a wall of worry year-to-date that the equity markets have yet to be able to climb. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -1.5%, the Dow was -1.8%, and the NASDAQ was -1.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury …

Where is the Love?

February 14, 2022

  Geopolitical tension over Russia-Ukraine knocked back the equity markets on Friday afternoon. This brought a two-week win streak to an end for the major averages. The S&P 500 Index ended the week – 1.8%, the Dow was -1.0%, and the NASDAQ was -3.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.918% at Friday’s …

Job Growth Surprises

February 7, 2022

  The reaction to multiple earnings reports this past week was a rollercoaster. Overall, the markets posted positive back-to-back weeks due to more upside than downside earnings reports and a better-than-expected January employment report. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +1.6%, the Dow was +1.1%, and the NASDAQ was +1.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury …

Earnings Buoy Markets

January 31, 2022

  Buoyed by several strong corporate earnings reports, the major U.S. equity indices all closed the week higher for the first time this year. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +0.8%, the Dow was +1.3%, and the NASDAQ was +0.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.778% at Friday’s close versus 1.771% …

Still Struggling

January 24, 2022

  The early year market retreat extended to a third week. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -3.9%, the Dow was -3.3%, and the NASDAQ was -4.9%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.771% at Friday’s close versus 1.793% the previous week. Some of the downturn can be attributed to the high …

March Madness

March 16, 2020

  Uncertainty over the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to negatively impact markets. The declaration of a national emergency on Friday allows coordinated action and financial resources to be used to shore up the economy and provide assistance to public health organizations. In our Dissecting Headlines section, we look at the national emergency …

Silver Linings

March 9, 2020

  As markets continue to experience volatility amid economic concerns from the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), we want to look at counterbalancing effects we are seeing to stabilize the economy. We mentioned last week we believe the economy should self-correct over time.  While 10-year Treasury yields have fallen, the Federal Reserve also made the …

Keeping Perspective

March 2, 2020

  Global equity markets had their worst week in several years last week. The weekly decline, due to economic concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), has pulled all major stock indices into negative territory for the year. Market volatility, which included several large intra-day swings, is indicative of the uncertainty. In our Dissecting …

Flip Flop

August 19, 2019

  It was a volatile week in the stock and bond markets with each day providing a different catalyst to change market direction. The week started with continued concern over U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan exchange rate and trade/tariff issues. Optimism reigned on Tuesday as the White House announced a delay to some tariffs until …

Moving the Peg

August 12, 2019

  The Chinese government’s move to weaken its currency relative to the U.S. Dollar rattled global markets early last week. The Yuan/Dollar exchange rate passed through the 7 Yuan-to-the-Dollar level. This makes the Chinese currency weaker (see “Currency Pegging” explanation below) and aids the pricing of Chinese exports in the global markets. The concerns over …

A Market of Stocks

July 22, 2019

The stock market is often seen as a large system that moves in unison based on macroeconomic or geopolitical factors. During corporate earnings season, the bottom-up impact of each company reporting earnings can be seen individually, often with significant disparity, making it more of a market of stocks. The volume of second quarter earnings reports …