Labor Market Calm

June 9, 2025

  A healthy labor market report kept stocks in the green last week. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was +1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrials +1.2%, and the NASDAQ +2.0%. The Communication Services, Technology, and Energy sectors led the S&P 500 Index for the week, while the Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary sectors …

May Flowered

June 2, 2025

  Equities posted a positive week, capping off a strong May recovery that pushed the major U.S. indices into positive territory for the year. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was +1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrials +1.7%, and the NASDAQ +2.0%. For the month, the S&P 500 Index was +6.3%, the Dow Jones Industrials …

Yield Sign

May 27, 2025

  Rising bond yields put a halt to recent momentum in stocks last week. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was -2.6%, the Dow Jones Industrials -2.4%, and the NASDAQ -1.5%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. The Consumer Staples, Communication Services, and Materials sectors declined the least and the Energy, Technology, and Real …

Trade Up

May 12, 2025

  An initial trade deal with the United Kingdom and an uneventful Federal Reserve meeting held markets to a small decline last week after back to-back positive weeks. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was -0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrials -0.1%, and the NASDAQ -0.2%. The S&P 500 Index was led by the Industrial, …

Trade Dialogue

April 21, 2025

  While there is currently a 90-day pause on the implementation of some tariffs, the impact and timing of trade negotiations with multiple countries presents a risk that is causing some investors to be tentative in buying equities. Last week, the S&P 500 Index was -1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrials -2.7%, and the NASDAQ -2.3%. …

Pause

April 14, 2025

  A 90-day pause in the U.S. tariff implementation plan provided equities a large relief rally last week.  For the week, the S&P 500 Index was +5.7%, the Dow Jones Industrials +5.0%, and the NASDAQ +7.4%. The S&P 500 Index was led by the Technology, Industrial, and Communication Services sectors, while the Energy, Real Estate …

Tariff Overhang

March 31, 2025

  Fear trumped greed to lead equity markets lower last week, mainly from concern over the economic impact of pending tariffs. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was -1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrials -1.0%, and the NASDAQ -2.4%. The S&P 500 Index was led by the Consumer Staples, Energy, and Real Estate sectors, while …

Policy Path

March 24, 2025

  The S&P 500 Index finished the week higher to break its four-week losing streak. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was +0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrials +1.2%, and the NASDAQ +0.3%. The S&P 500 Index was led by the Energy, Financial, and Health Care sectors, while the Materials, Utility, and Consumer Staples sectors …

Relief Rally

March 17, 2025

  The equity market saw a welcome relief rally on Friday but closed lower for the week. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was -2.2%, the Dow Jones Industrials -3.0%, and the NASDAQ -2.4%. The S&P 500 Index was led by the Energy, Utility, and Financial sectors, while the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and …

Earnings Matter

February 17, 2020

  Despite concerns over impact of the coronavirus, the equity markets staged a recovery back toward record levels last week. We believe the significant story here is corporate earnings. With 387 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported fourth quarter 2019 earnings, 72% have exceeded expectations, 10% have been in-line and 19% have been …

Feeling Better

February 10, 2020

  Coronavirus fear ebbed early in the week allowing investors to focus on good corporate earnings growth and a strong January employment report. Deaths in China from the coronavirus have now surpassed SARS (>811) but when considering the current U.S. flu season has seen over 10,000 deaths we can see things in better perspective. Still, …

Gone Viral

January 27, 2020

  The enthusiasm from the Phase One U.S. – China trade agreement was quickly tempered as fear of the economic impact of the Coronavirus on global growth seeped into the markets. Major market averages saw their first weekly decline for the year. Despite the headline health scare, corporate earnings reporting season rolls on. With 85 …

Phase One Trade Agreement Signed

January 20, 2020

  A good start to the fourth quarter earnings reporting season and the signing of the Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China combined to maintain positive equity market momentum this past week. With 44 companies having reported fourth quarter earnings, 70% have exceeded expectations, 7% have reported in-line, and 23% have reported …

Focus Returns to Corporate Earnings

January 13, 2020

  After a short period of volatility surrounding U.S.—Iran tensions, the market continued its current climb once investors assessed that the situation was deescalating. Geopolitical tensions aside, investors can return their focus to company fundamentals this week as the fourth quarter corporate earnings season kicks off. Twenty-six companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled …

Stocktober

October 21, 2019

  The corporate earnings reporting season is underway. Earnings reports were generally upbeat last week and the S&P 500 Index responded with a positive return. Of the 73 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third earnings, 84% have exceeded expectations, 4% have met expectations and 12% have reported below expectations. Current expectation is …

Tariff Reprieve

October 14, 2019

  The S&P 500 Index snapped a three-week decline on optimism the U.S. and China were making progress on the trade dispute. In an announcement on Friday, the U.S. agreed not to enact the scheduled October 15th tariff increases on $250 billion of goods in exchange for China agreeing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. …

Parsing the Data

October 7, 2019

  The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …

Quarter End

September 30, 2019

  The equity market declined on Friday afternoon for the second consecutive week following a report that the U.S. was considering banning U.S. pensions from investing in Chinese stocks and potentially delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges. Friday’s lower finish left the S&P 500 Index down 1.0% for the week. The use of international fund …

Liquidity

September 23, 2019

  The equity market declined on Friday afternoon following a report that a Chinese delegation canceled a scheduled trip to visit farms in Montana and Nebraska to return to China early. That news was enough to raise some doubt on the current progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China. Friday’s lower finish left …

Olive Branches

September 16, 2019

  Some small concessions were made in the U.S.— China trade dispute with both sides taking steps to diffuse any further escalation. The U.S. said it would delay a tariff increase on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th out of respect for the People’s Republic of China celebrating its 70th anniversary. …

Trade Optimism Trumps Mixed Data

September 9, 2019

  Last week produced a mix of economic reports that presented a modestly softer economy, but one that is not imminent danger of recession. Some of the softness, such as the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing Index and the weaker Employment Report, can be attributed to the continuing trade issues with China. Once the announcement …

Monitoring Headlines

September 2, 2019

  The equity markets rebounded this past week to finish with their first weekly gain in five weeks. Optimism on international trade between the U.S. and China was the major catalyst for the weekly gain in stocks. With no significant corporate earnings news, we’ve stressed that economic and geopolitical news is likely to set market …

Volatile Trade

August 26, 2019

  The final significant week of second quarter earnings brought upside surprises from several big retail companies, but an escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China overshadowed everything and ended the week on the downside for the major equity indices. On second quarter earnings, 482 companies (>96%) in the S&P 500 have reported quarter-to-date. …

Flip Flop

August 19, 2019

  It was a volatile week in the stock and bond markets with each day providing a different catalyst to change market direction. The week started with continued concern over U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan exchange rate and trade/tariff issues. Optimism reigned on Tuesday as the White House announced a delay to some tariffs until …

Moving the Peg

August 12, 2019

  The Chinese government’s move to weaken its currency relative to the U.S. Dollar rattled global markets early last week. The Yuan/Dollar exchange rate passed through the 7 Yuan-to-the-Dollar level. This makes the Chinese currency weaker (see “Currency Pegging” explanation below) and aids the pricing of Chinese exports in the global markets. The concerns over …

Whipsaw

August 5, 2019

  Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement to lower its target range for the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move was a “midcycle adjustment to policy” and that future rate cuts were not a guarantee. Despite the Fed Chairman’s comments, the markets are currently forecasting an …

Decision Point

July 29, 2019

  On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make a decision on its interest rate target. The current market probabilities are for a reduction of 0.25% which would bring the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 2.00% to 2.25%. We can attribute most of the stock market tailwind over the past …

A Market of Stocks

July 22, 2019

The stock market is often seen as a large system that moves in unison based on macroeconomic or geopolitical factors. During corporate earnings season, the bottom-up impact of each company reporting earnings can be seen individually, often with significant disparity, making it more of a market of stocks. The volume of second quarter earnings reports …

Earnings Take Center Stage

July 15, 2019

  Second quarter earnings season takes center stage this week as 56 companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled to report earnings results. Most major banks will report earnings and we can see how they are navigating the current interest rate environment. Several industrial companies will also report earnings results and we can get …

Balancing Act

July 8, 2019

  An upside surprise to the June employment report last week tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve would be reducing short-term interest rate at the July FOMC meeting. The Labor Department reported that Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 224,000 in June versus an expectation of 160,000. This was a sharp reversal from May’s disappointing jobs report …