Laboring

December 6, 2021

  Continued concerns from the potential impact of the omicron variant, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the Fed may need to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases, and a lackluster employment report drove a decline across equity markets. The S&P 500 Index finished the week -1.2%, the Dow was -0.8% and the NASDAQ …

Reservations

November 29, 2021

  The equity markets declined during the holiday shortened week. The steep decline came on Friday following concerns that travel restrictions from the latest COVID variant could negatively impact global growth. The S&P 500 Index finished the week -2.2%, the Dow was -2.0% and the NASDAQ was -3.3%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased …

Checking Sentiment

November 15, 2021

  Following a five-week rally, the S&P 500 Index took a pause last week. The S&P 500 finished the week -0.3%, the Dow was -0.6% and the NASDAQ was -1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.570% at Friday’s close versus 1.455% the previous week. Current forecast for the S&P 500 Index is …

Fed Game Plan

November 8, 2021

  Confirmation from the Federal Reserve that the economy has reached a level improvement that allows a reduction in COVID-era policy accommodation rallied the S&P 500 Index to all-time highs last week. The S&P 500 finished the week +2.0%, the Dow was +1.4% and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased …

‘Tis the Season

November 1, 2021

  All four weeks in October were positive in the equity markets. This past week, the S&P 500 was +1.3%, the Dow was +0.4% and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. Oil snapped its multi-week rally, finishing down 0.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.554% at Friday’s close versus 1.653% the previous week. Current …

Stocktober

October 25, 2021

  Corporate earnings led the market again last week. Of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings for the quarter, 83.8% have reported earnings above consensus estimates. The S&P 500 was +1.7%, the Dow was +1.1% and the NASDAQ was +1.4%. Oil continued its multi-week rally, +1.8%. The U.S. 10-year …

Rallying Back

October 18, 2021

  A good set of corporate earnings reports and economic data rallied the equity markets in the second half of the week. The S&P 500 was +1.8%, the Dow was +1.6% and the NASDAQ was +2.2%. Oil continued its multi-week rally, +3.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.574% at Friday’s close versus …

Good Enough to Taper

October 11, 2021

  The announcement of an agreement to temporarily increase the U.S. debt ceiling helped markets recover toward week’s end, then a lackluster employment report pushed markets down on Friday. The S&P 500 was +0.8%, the Dow was +1.3% and the NASDAQ was +0.2%. Oil was again the winner for the week, closing +4.6%. The U.S. …

Government Wrangling

October 4, 2021

  Anxiety in Washington over the debt ceiling and spending bills sent the equity markets lower last week. The U.S. government looks to avert a shutdown as a continuing resolution was passed to fund the government through December 3rd. Meanwhile the wrangling continues over the debt ceiling, infrastructure, and budget bills. The S&P 500 was …

Ports in a Storm

September 27, 2021

  Equity markets dropped last Monday on China credit concerns, then rallied back with help of a steady hand from the Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting midweek. The S&P 500 was +0.5%, the Dow was +0.6%, and the NASDAQ was flat. Oil continued its recent climb. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to …

Equinox

September 20, 2021

  The equity markets continued their slow downward move last week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.7% and the Dow was flat. Small capitalization stocks and oil bucked the trend. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.363% at Friday’s close versus 1.343% the previous week. Nine companies in …

Slow Leak

September 13, 2021

  The equity markets had a slow leak over the short, four-day trading week last week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –1.7%, the NASDAQ –1.4% and the Dow –2.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.343% at Friday’s close versus 1.326% the previous week. With second quarter earnings reporting complete, the …

Laboring

September 7, 2021

  A well below forecast employment report may allow the Federal Reserve to be judicious when it decides to start tapering monthly bond purchases. The August employment report showed an increase of only 235,000 net new jobs versus expectations of 725,000 to 750,000 jobs. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +0.6%, the NASDAQ +1.4% …

Calming Effects

August 30, 2021

  The greatly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday appeared to have a calming and positive impact on markets. He reiterated the comments of several Fed officials who said that economic conditions have improved, and the Fed can begin tapering its monthly bond purchases some time …

Dog Days

August 23, 2021

  A geopolitical crisis in Afghanistan and hints from the Federal Reserve that it could soon begin tapering monthly bond purchases combined to lead the equity markets to a negative week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.3% and the Dow –1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.260% …

Letting off Steam

August 16, 2021

  While inflation sparked by the rapid economic rebound is still elevated, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports may suggest the surge is losing some steam. We are not out of the woods yet, but the concern of runaway inflation may be overdone. The S&P 500 Index closed the …

Navigating the Waters

March 29, 2021

  We head into the end of the first quarter with all three major U.S. equity indices positive for the year. We are fortunate to be in a better economic and social environment versus this time last year when the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was driving equity markets lower and forcing people into …

Fed Speak

March 22, 2021

  The Federal Reserve acknowledged some improvement in the economy in its Wednesday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement, while stating that inflation remains below target. The economic improvement versus inflation battle continues in the fixed income and equity markets. This past week “Team Inflation” won as the equity markets declined and bond yields …

Springing Forward

March 15, 2021

  Springing Forward! The equity markets moved to the upside last week. Investors seem to be a little more comfortable with bond yields. Two inflation measures for February, the CPI and PPI, showed an increase in inflation mainly tied to increasing energy prices. The February CPI showed 12-month rate of inflation for consumer goods and …

Tracking the Consumer

November 11, 2019

  Optimism on U.S.—China trade helped markets extend gains for the third straight week. Stocks are at record levels as the third quarter earnings season slows into its final weeks. Of the 446 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported 3Q earnings, 74% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations and 19% have reported …

Tariff Reprieve

October 14, 2019

  The S&P 500 Index snapped a three-week decline on optimism the U.S. and China were making progress on the trade dispute. In an announcement on Friday, the U.S. agreed not to enact the scheduled October 15th tariff increases on $250 billion of goods in exchange for China agreeing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. …

Parsing the Data

October 7, 2019

  The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …

Trade Optimism Trumps Mixed Data

September 9, 2019

  Last week produced a mix of economic reports that presented a modestly softer economy, but one that is not imminent danger of recession. Some of the softness, such as the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing Index and the weaker Employment Report, can be attributed to the continuing trade issues with China. Once the announcement …

Fed Stays on Hold

May 6, 2019

  The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …