Checking Sentiment

November 15, 2021

  Following a five-week rally, the S&P 500 Index took a pause last week. The S&P 500 finished the week -0.3%, the Dow was -0.6% and the NASDAQ was -1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.570% at Friday’s close versus 1.455% the previous week. Current forecast for the S&P 500 Index is …

Fed Game Plan

November 8, 2021

  Confirmation from the Federal Reserve that the economy has reached a level improvement that allows a reduction in COVID-era policy accommodation rallied the S&P 500 Index to all-time highs last week. The S&P 500 finished the week +2.0%, the Dow was +1.4% and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased …

‘Tis the Season

November 1, 2021

  All four weeks in October were positive in the equity markets. This past week, the S&P 500 was +1.3%, the Dow was +0.4% and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. Oil snapped its multi-week rally, finishing down 0.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.554% at Friday’s close versus 1.653% the previous week. Current …

Stocktober

October 25, 2021

  Corporate earnings led the market again last week. Of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings for the quarter, 83.8% have reported earnings above consensus estimates. The S&P 500 was +1.7%, the Dow was +1.1% and the NASDAQ was +1.4%. Oil continued its multi-week rally, +1.8%. The U.S. 10-year …

Rallying Back

October 18, 2021

  A good set of corporate earnings reports and economic data rallied the equity markets in the second half of the week. The S&P 500 was +1.8%, the Dow was +1.6% and the NASDAQ was +2.2%. Oil continued its multi-week rally, +3.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.574% at Friday’s close versus …

Good Enough to Taper

October 11, 2021

  The announcement of an agreement to temporarily increase the U.S. debt ceiling helped markets recover toward week’s end, then a lackluster employment report pushed markets down on Friday. The S&P 500 was +0.8%, the Dow was +1.3% and the NASDAQ was +0.2%. Oil was again the winner for the week, closing +4.6%. The U.S. …

Government Wrangling

October 4, 2021

  Anxiety in Washington over the debt ceiling and spending bills sent the equity markets lower last week. The U.S. government looks to avert a shutdown as a continuing resolution was passed to fund the government through December 3rd. Meanwhile the wrangling continues over the debt ceiling, infrastructure, and budget bills. The S&P 500 was …

Ports in a Storm

September 27, 2021

  Equity markets dropped last Monday on China credit concerns, then rallied back with help of a steady hand from the Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting midweek. The S&P 500 was +0.5%, the Dow was +0.6%, and the NASDAQ was flat. Oil continued its recent climb. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to …

Equinox

September 20, 2021

  The equity markets continued their slow downward move last week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.7% and the Dow was flat. Small capitalization stocks and oil bucked the trend. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.363% at Friday’s close versus 1.343% the previous week. Nine companies in …

Slow Leak

September 13, 2021

  The equity markets had a slow leak over the short, four-day trading week last week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –1.7%, the NASDAQ –1.4% and the Dow –2.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.343% at Friday’s close versus 1.326% the previous week. With second quarter earnings reporting complete, the …

Laboring

September 7, 2021

  A well below forecast employment report may allow the Federal Reserve to be judicious when it decides to start tapering monthly bond purchases. The August employment report showed an increase of only 235,000 net new jobs versus expectations of 725,000 to 750,000 jobs. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +0.6%, the NASDAQ +1.4% …

Calming Effects

August 30, 2021

  The greatly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday appeared to have a calming and positive impact on markets. He reiterated the comments of several Fed officials who said that economic conditions have improved, and the Fed can begin tapering its monthly bond purchases some time …

Dog Days

August 23, 2021

  A geopolitical crisis in Afghanistan and hints from the Federal Reserve that it could soon begin tapering monthly bond purchases combined to lead the equity markets to a negative week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.3% and the Dow –1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.260% …

Letting off Steam

August 16, 2021

  While inflation sparked by the rapid economic rebound is still elevated, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports may suggest the surge is losing some steam. We are not out of the woods yet, but the concern of runaway inflation may be overdone. The S&P 500 Index closed the …

Jawboning

August 9, 2021

  Equity markets advanced last week. There was a significant amount of jawboning regarding an end to the Fed’s monthly bond buying programs and 10-year Treasury bond yields increased following a strong July employment report. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +1.0%, the NASDAQ +1.0% and the Dow +0.8%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond …

Staring at the Ceiling

August 2, 2021

  Large cap equities closed lower last week. Despite a large increase in year-over-year earnings for most companies, growth concerns seeped in for some of the large cap tech companies. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.4%, the NASDAQ -1.0% and the Dow –0.4%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.23% at …

Passing the Baton

July 26, 2021

  The market succumbed to COVID Delta variant fears last Monday, then snapped back to a record close by week’s end. All major averages closed higher for the week with the S&P 500 Index +2.0%, the NASDAQ +2.9% and the Dow +1.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.28% at Friday’s close versus …

Stockathlon

July 19, 2021

  Despite good earnings from the major banks and some other companies in the first week of second quarter earnings reporting, the market averages struggled in the back half of the week. Continued presence of inflationary pressures and unknown potential impact of the COVID Delta variant led investor concerns. The S&P 500 Index closed the …

Injections

December 14, 2020

  The previous week’s stimulus talks seem to have stalled as the week went on. This, coupled with an uptick in Initial Jobless Claims and COVID cases, pushed the equity market down from record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was –0.5%, the S&P 500 Index was –0.9%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –1.2%. …

Currency

December 7, 2020

  Fresh talk of a potential stimulus bill carried the equity markets into record territory at week’s end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +1.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +2.2%. The November employment report showed 245,000 new jobs created versus 610,000 in October. The deceleration in job …

‘Tis the Season

November 30, 2020

  The Thanksgiving week mood in the market was generally positive. The Dow Jones Average was +2.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +2.3%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +3.0%. As we head into the last month of 2020, investors are likely to continue the focus on the optimism of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and their …

Comfort Food

November 23, 2020

  Stocks backed-off all-time highs last week as renewed concerns of increasing COVID case loads and restrictions in high-risk states pulled against investor optimism of vaccines on the way. The Dow Jones Average and S&P 500 Index declined 0.7% and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 0.2%. With 474 of 500 companies in the S&P 500 …

A Shot in the Arm

November 16, 2020

  Following a strong post-election day rally the week prior, the S&P 500 Index (+2.2%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+4.2%) followed with a second week of gains while the NASDAQ 100 Index retreated modestly (-1.3%). Much of the differential in performance was driven by sentiment that a potential COVID vaccine was imminent which boosted …

Back to Business

November 9, 2020

  A strong post-election day rally boosted the major equity indices last week. The NASDAQ 100 Index was +9.4%, the S&P 500 Index was +7.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +6.9%. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee kept short-term interest rates steady in its 0% to 0.25% target range. The FOMC acknowledged …

Stepping Out

May 25, 2020

  What did you do this weekend? Some consumers purchased groceries, got takeout food, or dined at a restaurant. Some would-be travelers stayed home, where as others drove or flew on trips. Some consumers went to a mall or big box store, shopped at a small business, or received packages at their homes. The U.S. …

Fed Stays on Hold

May 6, 2019

  The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …

Positive GDP Surprise

April 29, 2019

  The advance report on First Quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) was reported at +3.2%. This was an upside surprise to the 2% widely anticipated by most economists. Part of the surprise was in net trade (exports versus imports) which was refreshing to see given the concern over the U.S.—China trade standoff. Personal consumption …