Laboring

September 7, 2021

  A well below forecast employment report may allow the Federal Reserve to be judicious when it decides to start tapering monthly bond purchases. The August employment report showed an increase of only 235,000 net new jobs versus expectations of 725,000 to 750,000 jobs. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +0.6%, the NASDAQ +1.4% …

Calming Effects

August 30, 2021

  The greatly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday appeared to have a calming and positive impact on markets. He reiterated the comments of several Fed officials who said that economic conditions have improved, and the Fed can begin tapering its monthly bond purchases some time …

Dog Days

August 23, 2021

  A geopolitical crisis in Afghanistan and hints from the Federal Reserve that it could soon begin tapering monthly bond purchases combined to lead the equity markets to a negative week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.3% and the Dow –1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.260% …

Letting off Steam

August 16, 2021

  While inflation sparked by the rapid economic rebound is still elevated, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports may suggest the surge is losing some steam. We are not out of the woods yet, but the concern of runaway inflation may be overdone. The S&P 500 Index closed the …

Jawboning

August 9, 2021

  Equity markets advanced last week. There was a significant amount of jawboning regarding an end to the Fed’s monthly bond buying programs and 10-year Treasury bond yields increased following a strong July employment report. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +1.0%, the NASDAQ +1.0% and the Dow +0.8%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond …

Staring at the Ceiling

August 2, 2021

  Large cap equities closed lower last week. Despite a large increase in year-over-year earnings for most companies, growth concerns seeped in for some of the large cap tech companies. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.4%, the NASDAQ -1.0% and the Dow –0.4%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.23% at …

Passing the Baton

July 26, 2021

  The market succumbed to COVID Delta variant fears last Monday, then snapped back to a record close by week’s end. All major averages closed higher for the week with the S&P 500 Index +2.0%, the NASDAQ +2.9% and the Dow +1.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.28% at Friday’s close versus …

Stockathlon

July 19, 2021

  Despite good earnings from the major banks and some other companies in the first week of second quarter earnings reporting, the market averages struggled in the back half of the week. Continued presence of inflationary pressures and unknown potential impact of the COVID Delta variant led investor concerns. The S&P 500 Index closed the …

Employment Focus

July 6, 2021

  Equity markets closed higher for the week with the S&P 500 Index +1.7%, the NASDAQ +2.7% and the Dow +1.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.431% at Friday’s close versus 1.524% the previous week. The June employment report was the major news story ahead of the Independence Day holiday weekend. The …

Half-Time

June 28, 2021

  Heading into the end of the first half of the year, all three major equity market averages have so far posted double-digit returns with the S&P 500 Index +14.8%, the NASDAQ +11.7% and the Dow +13.6%. The PCE Price Index for May was +0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year. Energy prices were 27.4% higher year-over-year …

Dot Plot

June 21, 2021

  The Federal Reserve increased its outlook for U.S. economic growth but maintained its narrative that current inflationary pressures are likely to be transitory as the early part of the post-COVID economic recovery moderates to longer-term sustainable growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –3.4% and the S&P 500 Index was –1.9%. The …

Tea Leaves

June 14, 2021

  Despite continued inflation pressures seen in the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the markets rallied into week’s end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –0.8%%, but the S&P 500 Index was +0.4%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +1.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.462% at Friday’s close …

Tip of the Taper

June 7, 2021

  The weaker than forecast employment report rallied stocks and bonds on Friday on the expectation it would keep the Fed on hold. This was despite the Fed’s announcement it would begin selling the excess corporate bonds and ETFs it purchased during the pandemic to stabilize markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week …

Mix and Mingle

June 1, 2021

  Investors appear to be absorbing the inflation story well as the equity markets all posted positive returns for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week +1.0%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.2%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +2.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.593% at Friday’s close …

Hitting the Road

May 24, 2021

  It was a mixed week in the equity market with the NASDAQ 100 Index in the green and the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –0.4%, the S&P 500 Index was –0.4%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +0.2%. The U.S. …

Take a Breath

May 17, 2021

  The early part of the week saw stocks under pressure from inflation concerns. A rally on Thursday and Friday triggered by the easing of mask wearing guidelines by the Center for Disease Control recouped some of the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –1.1%, the S&P 500 Index was –1.3%, and …

Employment Debate Heats Up

May 10, 2021

  Bad news in the monthly employment report was good news for stocks on Friday. A much weaker employment report than anticipated was seen as a signal the economy is not as frothy as expected, causing equities to rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week +2.7%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.3%, and …

Are You Ready for the Summer?

May 3, 2021

  The quarterly earnings reporting season is past the half-way point. Of the 303 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings to date for Q1, 87.1% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.3% and prior four quarter average of 75.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average …

Over the Hump

April 26, 2021

  Despite generally positive corporate earnings reports, the equity markets were flattish last week on concerns surrounding proposals from the White House for higher capital gains taxes. Of the 123 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings to date for Q1, 85.4% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a …

Crude Math

April 19, 2021

  The equity markets responded positively to the first week of first quarter earnings. Of the 44 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings to date for the first quarter, 84.1% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week +1.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.4% …

Earnings on Tap

April 12, 2021

  Over 20% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated for COVID-19. The economy has been looking up and the Federal Reserve is being patient with interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also expressed a positive view of the economy in an interview that was aired on Sunday, but also said it is highly …

Christmas Stimulus

December 21, 2020

  The initial rollout of an approved coronavirus vaccine helped boost markets last week, though a failure to reach an agreement on a stimulus plan by week’s end closed the week on a down note. The stimulus plan appears to have been resolved during weekend negotiations and a vote is set for as early as …

Injections

December 14, 2020

  The previous week’s stimulus talks seem to have stalled as the week went on. This, coupled with an uptick in Initial Jobless Claims and COVID cases, pushed the equity market down from record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was –0.5%, the S&P 500 Index was –0.9%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –1.2%. …

Currency

December 7, 2020

  Fresh talk of a potential stimulus bill carried the equity markets into record territory at week’s end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +1.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +2.2%. The November employment report showed 245,000 new jobs created versus 610,000 in October. The deceleration in job …

‘Tis the Season

November 30, 2020

  The Thanksgiving week mood in the market was generally positive. The Dow Jones Average was +2.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +2.3%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +3.0%. As we head into the last month of 2020, investors are likely to continue the focus on the optimism of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and their …

Comfort Food

November 23, 2020

  Stocks backed-off all-time highs last week as renewed concerns of increasing COVID case loads and restrictions in high-risk states pulled against investor optimism of vaccines on the way. The Dow Jones Average and S&P 500 Index declined 0.7% and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 0.2%. With 474 of 500 companies in the S&P 500 …

A Shot in the Arm

November 16, 2020

  Following a strong post-election day rally the week prior, the S&P 500 Index (+2.2%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+4.2%) followed with a second week of gains while the NASDAQ 100 Index retreated modestly (-1.3%). Much of the differential in performance was driven by sentiment that a potential COVID vaccine was imminent which boosted …

Back to Business

November 9, 2020

  A strong post-election day rally boosted the major equity indices last week. The NASDAQ 100 Index was +9.4%, the S&P 500 Index was +7.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +6.9%. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee kept short-term interest rates steady in its 0% to 0.25% target range. The FOMC acknowledged …

Political Homestretch

November 2, 2020

  Despite a slew of strong company earnings reports, concerns about an accelerating spread of COVID-19 in both the U.S. and abroad pushed stocks lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 6.5%, the S&P 500 Index declined 5.6%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 5.5%. The earnings reporting season is rolling on and …