A combination of concern regarding a re-acceleration of COVID-19 cases and a natural tendency for a pause once the market regained its beginning year levels resulted in a decline in major market averages last week. The Federal Reserve which has pledged economic support throughout the COVID-19 crisis left short-term interest rates unchanged near zero …
While the economy still has room for improvement, the stock market has staged an impressive recovery. Coming off the March low, the S&P 500 Index has advanced 45%. The containment of COVID-19, Federal Reserve’s actions to provide liquidity into the financial system, and continued incremental positive news on the opening of the economy have …
Despite the widespread economic displacement from the COVID-19 lockdown, an optimistic case can be made for a rebound in consumer activity over the next few months. The U.S. consumer accounts for approximately two-thirds of economic activity, so a healthy consumer is the engine of the U.S. economy. With the continued phase-in of activity, workers …
What did you do this weekend? Some consumers purchased groceries, got takeout food, or dined at a restaurant. Some would-be travelers stayed home, where as others drove or flew on trips. Some consumers went to a mall or big box store, shopped at a small business, or received packages at their homes. The U.S. …
Increased testing for COVID-19 is providing greater knowledge of the extent of the spread of the virus and its lethality. Several biotech and pharmaceutical companies are progressing with the development and testing of potential vaccines. The world keeps moving forward toward a gradual re-opening of social and economic activity. At the same time, Federal …
Focus on the impact of the COVID crisis and the pace of re-opening of the world economy has made the first quarter earnings reporting season somewhat less impactful than usual. The sharp downturn in economic activity made forecasting difficult and even many companies were unable to accurately provide guidance on the impact on their …
Incremental social and economic activity continues across the globe. Some harder hit countries and specific areas of the United States will take longer to re-open, but the transition can be seen as restrictions on individuals and businesses in many areas continue to relax. Increased economic activity should follow. For first quarter earnings, 275 companies …
Some States have begun partial re-opening of previously closed businesses and activities, and several other States have been discussing re-opening plans. The opening of the economy is likely to be state-by-state and industry-by-industry. COVID cases have risen where testing has increased, but hospitalizations and deaths appear to have peaked in most States giving governors …
The equity markets put together back-to-back winning weeks as the economy and COVID-19 news is less worse than it was potentially forecast to be just a few weeks ago. The curve appears to be flattening on COVID, select parts of the U.S. are set to be opened this month, and most of the early …
Global equity markets had a strong recovery rally last week as scenarios begin to firm up of when the COVID-19 peaks in various countries and the global economy begins to re-open. While the social and economic recovery is likely to last several months or longer, the financial markets tend to anticipate outcomes and a …
The S&P 500 Index closed November +3.6%, its best monthly performance since June. Investor confidence in a healthy consumer, low inflation, and optimism on U.S.—China trade talks continue to buoy stocks. With only a month left in 2019, there are a few remaining milestones to monitor as we move into the end of the …
Stocks retreated from record levels last week. The third quarter earnings season is near finished with 476 of 500 companies having reported earnings. The earnings reporting season has materialized better than first thought a few months ago. Earnings should finish with a mild year-over-year decline of less than 0.5% versus expectations of a 2.2% …
Stocks remain at record levels on optimism for a partial trade truce. As we head into the final leg of corporate earnings season, we anticipate that macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines should continue to dominate market direction day-to-day. Earnings have shown a more positive picture than was expected in late September. Of the 461 companies …
Optimism on U.S.—China trade helped markets extend gains for the third straight week. Stocks are at record levels as the third quarter earnings season slows into its final weeks. Of the 446 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported 3Q earnings, 74% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations and 19% have reported …
Lots of positives stacked up this past week with the Fed lowering short-term interest rates by 0.25%, a stronger than expected employment report, and continued progress on U.S. – China trade. These along with good third quarter earnings reports pushed the S&P 500 into record territory. The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term target rate …
The corporate earnings season has so far been less negative than originally anticipated. Of the 199 companies that have reported 3Q earnings, 78% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations, and 15% have reported below expectations. This has improved current earnings estimates for the quarter to a 2.0% decline in year/year earnings on 3.4% …
The corporate earnings reporting season is underway. Earnings reports were generally upbeat last week and the S&P 500 Index responded with a positive return. Of the 73 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third earnings, 84% have exceeded expectations, 4% have met expectations and 12% have reported below expectations. Current expectation is …
The S&P 500 Index snapped a three-week decline on optimism the U.S. and China were making progress on the trade dispute. In an announcement on Friday, the U.S. agreed not to enact the scheduled October 15th tariff increases on $250 billion of goods in exchange for China agreeing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. …
The S&P 500 Index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The decline wound up being smaller than the start of the week would have indicated, as the market rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday. The week started down when the September ISM Manufacturing Report showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Index level of …
The equity market declined on Friday afternoon for the second consecutive week following a report that the U.S. was considering banning U.S. pensions from investing in Chinese stocks and potentially delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges. Friday’s lower finish left the S&P 500 Index down 1.0% for the week. The use of international fund …
The equity markets rebounded this past week to finish with their first weekly gain in five weeks. Optimism on international trade between the U.S. and China was the major catalyst for the weekly gain in stocks. With no significant corporate earnings news, we’ve stressed that economic and geopolitical news is likely to set market …
The final significant week of second quarter earnings brought upside surprises from several big retail companies, but an escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China overshadowed everything and ended the week on the downside for the major equity indices. On second quarter earnings, 482 companies (>96%) in the S&P 500 have reported quarter-to-date. …
It was a volatile week in the stock and bond markets with each day providing a different catalyst to change market direction. The week started with continued concern over U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan exchange rate and trade/tariff issues. Optimism reigned on Tuesday as the White House announced a delay to some tariffs until …
The Chinese government’s move to weaken its currency relative to the U.S. Dollar rattled global markets early last week. The Yuan/Dollar exchange rate passed through the 7 Yuan-to-the-Dollar level. This makes the Chinese currency weaker (see “Currency Pegging” explanation below) and aids the pricing of Chinese exports in the global markets. The concerns over …
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement to lower its target range for the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move was a “midcycle adjustment to policy” and that future rate cuts were not a guarantee. Despite the Fed Chairman’s comments, the markets are currently forecasting an …
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make a decision on its interest rate target. The current market probabilities are for a reduction of 0.25% which would bring the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 2.00% to 2.25%. We can attribute most of the stock market tailwind over the past …
The stock market is often seen as a large system that moves in unison based on macroeconomic or geopolitical factors. During corporate earnings season, the bottom-up impact of each company reporting earnings can be seen individually, often with significant disparity, making it more of a market of stocks. The volume of second quarter earnings reports …
Second quarter earnings season takes center stage this week as 56 companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled to report earnings results. Most major banks will report earnings and we can see how they are navigating the current interest rate environment. Several industrial companies will also report earnings results and we can get …
An upside surprise to the June employment report last week tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve would be reducing short-term interest rate at the July FOMC meeting. The Labor Department reported that Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 224,000 in June versus an expectation of 160,000. This was a sharp reversal from May’s disappointing jobs report …
Investors were surprised late last week by the announcement that the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and gradually increase them until the flow of illegal immigrants stopped. The economic and political uncertainty of this policy added to the uncertainty currently in the market from the U.S.—China trade …
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