Uncertainty over the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to negatively impact markets. The declaration of a national emergency on Friday allows coordinated action and financial resources to be used to shore up the economy and provide assistance to public health organizations. In our Dissecting Headlines section, we look at the national emergency …
As markets continue to experience volatility amid economic concerns from the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), we want to look at counterbalancing effects we are seeing to stabilize the economy. We mentioned last week we believe the economy should self-correct over time. While 10-year Treasury yields have fallen, the Federal Reserve also made the …
Global equity markets had their worst week in several years last week. The weekly decline, due to economic concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), has pulled all major stock indices into negative territory for the year. Market volatility, which included several large intra-day swings, is indicative of the uncertainty. In our Dissecting …
Continued spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) led stocks to the downside late last week. News of the virus also spreading outside of China to countries such as Italy has brought additional concern to investors trying to understand the potential economic impact of the outbreak. We view the issue as transitory. While the first quarter …
Despite concerns over impact of the coronavirus, the equity markets staged a recovery back toward record levels last week. We believe the significant story here is corporate earnings. With 387 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported fourth quarter 2019 earnings, 72% have exceeded expectations, 10% have been in-line and 19% have been …
Coronavirus fear ebbed early in the week allowing investors to focus on good corporate earnings growth and a strong January employment report. Deaths in China from the coronavirus have now surpassed SARS (>811) but when considering the current U.S. flu season has seen over 10,000 deaths we can see things in better perspective. Still, …
Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, predicted an early Spring over the weekend. We’d take caution with the prediction as the groundhog has only been about 40% correct historically on his weather predictions. He predicted an early Spring last year that did not prove correct. Likewise, not many market prognosticators know the extent of the coronavirus …
The enthusiasm from the Phase One U.S. – China trade agreement was quickly tempered as fear of the economic impact of the Coronavirus on global growth seeped into the markets. Major market averages saw their first weekly decline for the year. Despite the headline health scare, corporate earnings reporting season rolls on. With 85 …
A good start to the fourth quarter earnings reporting season and the signing of the Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China combined to maintain positive equity market momentum this past week. With 44 companies having reported fourth quarter earnings, 70% have exceeded expectations, 7% have reported in-line, and 23% have reported …
After a short period of volatility surrounding U.S.—Iran tensions, the market continued its current climb once investors assessed that the situation was deescalating. Geopolitical tensions aside, investors can return their focus to company fundamentals this week as the fourth quarter corporate earnings season kicks off. Twenty-six companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled …
The equity markets rebounded this past week to finish with their first weekly gain in five weeks. Optimism on international trade between the U.S. and China was the major catalyst for the weekly gain in stocks. With no significant corporate earnings news, we’ve stressed that economic and geopolitical news is likely to set market …
The final significant week of second quarter earnings brought upside surprises from several big retail companies, but an escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China overshadowed everything and ended the week on the downside for the major equity indices. On second quarter earnings, 482 companies (>96%) in the S&P 500 have reported quarter-to-date. …
It was a volatile week in the stock and bond markets with each day providing a different catalyst to change market direction. The week started with continued concern over U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan exchange rate and trade/tariff issues. Optimism reigned on Tuesday as the White House announced a delay to some tariffs until …
The Chinese government’s move to weaken its currency relative to the U.S. Dollar rattled global markets early last week. The Yuan/Dollar exchange rate passed through the 7 Yuan-to-the-Dollar level. This makes the Chinese currency weaker (see “Currency Pegging” explanation below) and aids the pricing of Chinese exports in the global markets. The concerns over …
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement to lower its target range for the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move was a “midcycle adjustment to policy” and that future rate cuts were not a guarantee. Despite the Fed Chairman’s comments, the markets are currently forecasting an …
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make a decision on its interest rate target. The current market probabilities are for a reduction of 0.25% which would bring the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 2.00% to 2.25%. We can attribute most of the stock market tailwind over the past …
The stock market is often seen as a large system that moves in unison based on macroeconomic or geopolitical factors. During corporate earnings season, the bottom-up impact of each company reporting earnings can be seen individually, often with significant disparity, making it more of a market of stocks. The volume of second quarter earnings reports …
Second quarter earnings season takes center stage this week as 56 companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled to report earnings results. Most major banks will report earnings and we can see how they are navigating the current interest rate environment. Several industrial companies will also report earnings results and we can get …
An upside surprise to the June employment report last week tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve would be reducing short-term interest rate at the July FOMC meeting. The Labor Department reported that Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 224,000 in June versus an expectation of 160,000. This was a sharp reversal from May’s disappointing jobs report …
Investors were surprised late last week by the announcement that the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and gradually increase them until the flow of illegal immigrants stopped. The economic and political uncertainty of this policy added to the uncertainty currently in the market from the U.S.—China trade …
Despite increased tensions with Iran and the start of the summer driving season, crude oil had its steepest decline since the late December lows, down 6.6% for the week. The equity markets also extended their recent decline with most averages adding to multi-week declines. As a follow-up to last week’s comments on the American …
A breakdown in US – China trade talks and some saber rattling with Iran dominated headlines this past week. Investors appear to be growing weary of the headline noise, especially with China. The thought that a conclusion to China trade is no longer a “done deal” is inserting some pessimism into investors’ psyche. This …
U.S.-China Trade dominated the headlines last week. As trade talks stalled, the U.S. increased the previously announced tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. The U.S. is also investigating options for tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese-made goods not currently under tariffs. The Chinese Vice Premier spent last week in the …
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …
The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.4% last week, its fifth consecutive weekly increase. Crude oil fell 2.5% for the week. As we near the end of the quarterly earnings season, much of the fundamental news from reporting companies is out and speculation on how current macro and industry data may impact earnings for first quarter …
Continue reading “Wrapping up Earnings and Focusing on Economic Data”
US-China trade expiration is getting an extension until after Trump and Xi meet later in March. Chinese vice premier Liu He has been in Washington for negotiations all week and into the weekend. Both sides seem eager to do something constructive, but it looks like nothing will be finalized until later in March. This stops …
Continue reading “Extending the U.S. – China Trade Deadline”
A deal was struck to avoid a resumption of the partial U.S. government shutdown last week. Macroeconomic Crisis One averted, even though there may be political ramifications of the President’s decision to push ahead with funding the wall for the U.S. southern border through emergency measures. We’re much more concerned about economics, business, and investing, …
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