The financial headlines were packed last week with earnings results, short squeezes, and vaccine news. The end results left all major U.S. market averages in the red for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and NASDAQ 100 Index were all down 3.3%. We are almost halfway through the fourth quarter …
The stock market rebounded last week. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +0.6%, the S&P 500 Index was +2.0%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +4.4%. The flurry of fourth quarter earnings reports continue this week with 120 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. Of the 66 …
After a short period of volatility surrounding U.S.—Iran tensions, the market continued its current climb once investors assessed that the situation was deescalating. Geopolitical tensions aside, investors can return their focus to company fundamentals this week as the fourth quarter corporate earnings season kicks off. Twenty-six companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled …
Momentum from year-end continued into the new year until U.S. – Iran tension reached a boiling point. The typical Middle East worry trade followed with oil, gold, Treasury bonds, bond proxies, and defense industry stocks to the positive in an otherwise down market. The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December meeting. The …
Barring any significant disruption happening over the next two days, the equity market will be closing 2019 at, or near, record highs. Many of the worries from a year ago, such as global trade and a hawkish Federal Reserve, have dissipated. Consumer spending has been a key component of economic growth for the year. …
The stock market continues to grind higher driven by favorable progress on trade between both U.S.-China and U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA). China appears to be accommodative to reducing tariffs and the U.S. is reciprocating. The key issues of intellectual property protections and further opening of China’s financial sector should take longer to work out. Trade should …
The stock market finished the week higher and hit all-time highs after a US-China trade deal was agreed upon. The agreement, known as a phase-one deal, averted new tariffs on $160 Billion of consumer goods set to start on December 15th. The agreement also reduced some current tariffs, with China agreeing to increase purchases …
The stock market struggled most of the week but staged a comeback rally on Friday on the better than expected employment report for November. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 266,000 in November, well above expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.6% to 3.5%. This marks the 21st consecutive …
Lots of positives stacked up this past week with the Fed lowering short-term interest rates by 0.25%, a stronger than expected employment report, and continued progress on U.S. – China trade. These along with good third quarter earnings reports pushed the S&P 500 into record territory. The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term target rate …
The corporate earnings season has so far been less negative than originally anticipated. Of the 199 companies that have reported 3Q earnings, 78% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations, and 15% have reported below expectations. This has improved current earnings estimates for the quarter to a 2.0% decline in year/year earnings on 3.4% …
The equity market declined on Friday afternoon following a report that a Chinese delegation canceled a scheduled trip to visit farms in Montana and Nebraska to return to China early. That news was enough to raise some doubt on the current progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China. Friday’s lower finish left …
Some small concessions were made in the U.S.— China trade dispute with both sides taking steps to diffuse any further escalation. The U.S. said it would delay a tariff increase on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th out of respect for the People’s Republic of China celebrating its 70th anniversary. …
Last week produced a mix of economic reports that presented a modestly softer economy, but one that is not imminent danger of recession. Some of the softness, such as the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing Index and the weaker Employment Report, can be attributed to the continuing trade issues with China. Once the announcement …
The equity markets rebounded this past week to finish with their first weekly gain in five weeks. Optimism on international trade between the U.S. and China was the major catalyst for the weekly gain in stocks. With no significant corporate earnings news, we’ve stressed that economic and geopolitical news is likely to set market …
The final significant week of second quarter earnings brought upside surprises from several big retail companies, but an escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China overshadowed everything and ended the week on the downside for the major equity indices. On second quarter earnings, 482 companies (>96%) in the S&P 500 have reported quarter-to-date. …
It was a volatile week in the stock and bond markets with each day providing a different catalyst to change market direction. The week started with continued concern over U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan exchange rate and trade/tariff issues. Optimism reigned on Tuesday as the White House announced a delay to some tariffs until …
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement to lower its target range for the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move was a “midcycle adjustment to policy” and that future rate cuts were not a guarantee. Despite the Fed Chairman’s comments, the markets are currently forecasting an …
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make a decision on its interest rate target. The current market probabilities are for a reduction of 0.25% which would bring the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 2.00% to 2.25%. We can attribute most of the stock market tailwind over the past …
The stock market is often seen as a large system that moves in unison based on macroeconomic or geopolitical factors. During corporate earnings season, the bottom-up impact of each company reporting earnings can be seen individually, often with significant disparity, making it more of a market of stocks. The volume of second quarter earnings reports …
Second quarter earnings season takes center stage this week as 56 companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled to report earnings results. Most major banks will report earnings and we can see how they are navigating the current interest rate environment. Several industrial companies will also report earnings results and we can get …
An upside surprise to the June employment report last week tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve would be reducing short-term interest rate at the July FOMC meeting. The Labor Department reported that Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 224,000 in June versus an expectation of 160,000. This was a sharp reversal from May’s disappointing jobs report …
U.S. President Trump and President Xi of China met during the G20 meeting in Japan this week and agreed to restart trade talks between the two countries. Tariffs remain on $250 billion of Chinese imports but no new tariffs will be put in place for the time being. There is no time table for …
A double-shot of positive news lifted major market averages last week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced his supportive posture to keep the U.S. economy growing and the White House announced President Trump and President Xi of China would meet during the G20 meeting in Japan at the end of this week. Both announcements supported …
The major market averages posted a second consecutive positive weekly return. With the lull between corporate earnings season, most movement came from macroeconomic data, politics, and some company commentary at investor conferences. Investors will have two big events to focus on for the balance of the month with the Federal Reserve meeting on June …
Continue reading “Will Key Meetings Satisfy Investor Expectations?”
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …
The advance report on First Quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) was reported at +3.2%. This was an upside surprise to the 2% widely anticipated by most economists. Part of the surprise was in net trade (exports versus imports) which was refreshing to see given the concern over the U.S.—China trade standoff. Personal consumption …
The S&P 500 closed out its best first quarter since 2009. The quarter came in like a lion and went out like a lamb. The giant January rebound (+8.0%) stepped down to more normal returns in February (+3.2%) and March (+1.9%). The quarterly gain almost erased the steep decline from the fourth quarter of …
The 2.9% move in the S&P 500 Index this past week erased the previous week’s 2.0% decline. The market shrugged off global economic worries and posted its best single week since last November. The U.S.-China trade meter shifted back to optimism this week. Oil continued its advance as well. WTI Crude was +4.4% for the …
Continue reading “Upbeat Week Heading into Next Fed Meeting”
US-China trade expiration is getting an extension until after Trump and Xi meet later in March. Chinese vice premier Liu He has been in Washington for negotiations all week and into the weekend. Both sides seem eager to do something constructive, but it looks like nothing will be finalized until later in March. This stops …
Continue reading “Extending the U.S. – China Trade Deadline”
A deal was struck to avoid a resumption of the partial U.S. government shutdown last week. Macroeconomic Crisis One averted, even though there may be political ramifications of the President’s decision to push ahead with funding the wall for the U.S. southern border through emergency measures. We’re much more concerned about economics, business, and investing, …
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