Frankenstocks

October 31, 2022

  Stocks have tried to come back from the dead, rallying for a second consecutive week and are on track to turn in a strong month for October. For the week, the S&P 500 was +4.0%, the Dow was +5.7%, and the NASDAQ was +2.1%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield decreased to 4.010% at …

Storm Before the Calm

October 24, 2022

  Stocks rallied on a combination of good earnings results and hope that the Fed would soon slow the pace of interest rate increases. The S&P 500 was +4.8%, the Dow was +4.9%, and the NASDAQ was +5.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 4.212% at Friday’s close versus 4.006% the previous week. …

FX Effects

October 17, 2022

  Stocks rallied on Thursday despite higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, then fell back on Friday for a mixed finish to the week. The S&P 500 was -1.5%, the Dow was +1.2%, and the NASDAQ was -3.1%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 4.006% at Friday’s close versus 3.885% the previous week. …

Navigating Earnings

October 10, 2022

  The equity market rebounded strongly at the start of last week but declined sharply on Friday following a stronger employment report. Despite Friday’s decline, the major markets held on to gains for the week. The S&P 500 was +1.6%, the Dow was +2.0%, and the NASDAQ was +0.7%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield …

Another Quarter Down

October 3, 2022

  The equity markets closed out their third consecutive down quarter last week. For the week, the S&P 500 was -2.9%, the Dow was -2.9%, and the NASDAQ was -3.0%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 3.804% at Friday’s close versus 3.697% the previous week. For the third quarter, the S&P 500 Index …

Grand Central Banking

September 26, 2022

  A determined Federal Reserve marching along with another 0.75% increase in short-term interest rates gave investors pause again last week. The S&P 500 was -4.6% for the week, the Dow was -4.0%, and the NASDAQ was -4.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 3.697% at Friday’s close versus 3.447% the previous week. …

We’re Not There Yet

September 19, 2022

  Inflationary concerns in the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released last week, sent stocks lower as there is not yet sufficient data to deter the Federal Reserve from its path of increasing interest rates. The S&P 500 Index was -4.7% for the week, the Dow was -4.1%, and the NASDAQ was -5.8%. The …

Bounce

September 12, 2022

  Despite comments from the Federal Reserve that it would keep raising rates until the job is done on inflation, equities rallied during the short four-day trading week. The S&P 500 was +3.7% for the week, the Dow was +2.7%, and the NASDAQ was +4.1%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 3.321% at …

Down the Jackson Hole

August 29, 2022

  Equities fell on Friday following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the Federal Reserve plans to keep raising interest rates to bring down inflation. The S&P 500 was -4.0% for the week, the Dow was -4.2%, and the NASDAQ was -4.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 3.087% at Friday’s …

Housing Developments

August 22, 2022

  After a strong, four-week run, the market retreated last week. Weakness in housing market data, a mixed set of earnings from retailers, and commentary in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from July may have given some investors pause on where the economy goes from here. The S&P 500 was -1.2% for …

Flattening Prices

August 15, 2022

  Markets rose last week as investors viewed the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports as a sign the pace of inflation has peaked. The S&P 500 was +3.3% for the week, the Dow was +3.0%, and the NASDAQ was +2.7%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 2.849% …

Summer Jobs

August 8, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index had a third consecutive weekly increase, though more muted than the previous two weeks. The S&P 500 was 0.4% for the week, the Dow was -0.1%, and the NASDAQ was +2.0%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 2.840% at Friday’s close versus 2.642% the previous week. Continued strength …

Dog Days

August 1, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index had its first back-to-back weekly gain since the end of March. The S&P 500 Index was +4.3% for the week, the Dow was +3.0%, and the NASDAQ was +4.5%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield decreased to 2.642% at Friday’s close versus 2.781% the previous week. The market shrugged off …

Taking Stock

July 25, 2022

  A refocus on corporate earnings across a broad set of industries boosted equity markets last week. The S&P 500 Index was +2.6% for the week, the Dow was +2.0%, and the NASDAQ was +3.4%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield decreased to 2.781% at Friday’s close versus 2.930% the previous week. The next Federal …

Earnings Splash

July 18, 2022

  The equity markets appeared to be headed for a dismal week following back-to-back inflationary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Friday’s rally reduced most of the week’s decline. The S&P 500 Index was -0.9% for the week, the Dow was -0.2%, and the NASDAQ was -1.2%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury …

Earnings Horizon

July 11, 2022

  The equity markets started the new quarter with a weekly increase. The S&P 500 Index was +2.0% for the week, the Dow was +0.8%, and the NASDAQ was +4.7%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 3.101% at Friday’s close versus 2.904% the previous week. The labor market has been resilient. The June …

Halftime

July 5, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index limped into the end of the quarter on Thursday, then staged a small, late-day rally on the first day of the new quarter ahead of the holiday weekend. The S&P 500 ended the week -2.2%, the Dow was -1.3%, and the NASDAQ was -4.3%. For the half-year ending June 30th, …

Super Market

June 27, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index rallied last week as investors became more comfortable with the Fed’s plan to stem the pace of inflation. The S&P 500 ended the week +6.5%, the Dow was +5.4%, and the NASDAQ was +7.5%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield decreased to 3.138% at Friday’s close versus 3.231% the previous …

Solstice

June 21, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index fell again last week as the Federal Reserve continued to tighten monetary policy. The S&P 500 ended the week -5.7%, the Dow was -4.7%, and the NASDAQ was -4.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 3.231% at Friday’s close versus 3.165% the previous week. The Federal Open Market …

Inflation Concerns Persist

June 13, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index fell sharply to end the week. Investors went on the defensive after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading indicated that most major categories of inflation have not slowed their ascent. The S&P 500 ended the week -5.0%, the Dow was -4.6%, and the NASDAQ was -5.7%. The 10-year U.S. …

Tightening

June 6, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index had a small relapse last week after its big advance the week prior. The S&P 500 ended the week -1.2%, the Dow was -0.8%, and the NASDAQ was -1.0%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 2.941% at Friday’s close versus 2.743% the previous week. As reflected in the …

Get Out of Town

May 23, 2022

  The S&P 500 Index rallied back from an intra-day decline on Friday that had the Index temporarily down 20% from its peak. The S&P 500 ended the week -3.0%, the Dow was -2.8%, and the NASDAQ was -4.4%. The equity markets have declined for seven consecutive weeks amid concerns over the impact of rising …

Relief Rally

May 16, 2022

  Despite Friday’s strong relief rally, stocks still ended last week lower. The S&P 500 ended the week -2.4%, the Dow was -2.1%, and the NASDAQ was -2.4%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield decreased to 2.928% at Friday’s close versus 3.142% the previous week. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index …

False Start

May 9, 2022

  The equity market rally following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision looked to be a false start after the market gave up the gain the following day and stocks closed lower for the week. The S&P 500 ended the week -0.2%, the Dow was -0.2%, and the NASDAQ was -1.2%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury …

In the Mix

May 2, 2022

  Mixed earnings and anticipation of tighter monetary policy leading up to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting sent stocks down last week. The S&P 500 ended the week -3.3%, the Dow was -2.5%, and the NASDAQ was -3.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increased to 2.938% at Friday’s close versus 2.905% the previous week. …

Political Homestretch

November 2, 2020

  Despite a slew of strong company earnings reports, concerns about an accelerating spread of COVID-19 in both the U.S. and abroad pushed stocks lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 6.5%, the S&P 500 Index declined 5.6%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 5.5%. The earnings reporting season is rolling on and …

Peak Week

October 26, 2020

  The third quarter earnings reporting season peaks this week with 180 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. The current third quarter consensus is for earnings to be down 16.7% year-over-year (versus down 18.7% last week and down 21.7%  at the start of earnings season) on a 3.6% decline in revenue. …

Unconventional

August 17, 2020

  It was a quieter week in the earnings reporting cycle with only 16 companies in the S&P 500 Index reporting earnings. The last big announcements come this week with some major retailers reporting earnings. With 457 companies in the S&P 500 having reported second quarter earnings to date, 81% have reported results above consensus. …

Looking Up

August 10, 2020

  Heading into the tail-end of the second quarter earnings season, 441 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings with 82% reporting results above consensus. This is better than the long-term average of 64.9%.  A fourth consecutive better than expected week has moved current consensus for second quarter S&P 500 earnings to down 31.7% …

Trough

August 3, 2020

  Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the U.S. saw a record contraction of 32.9% as the April through June time period was hit by the COVID induced business shutdowns and stay at home orders. While the large decline is sobering, it is also likely to be short-lived as economic data has been improving. …