Dot Plot

June 21, 2021

  The Federal Reserve increased its outlook for U.S. economic growth but maintained its narrative that current inflationary pressures are likely to be transitory as the early part of the post-COVID economic recovery moderates to longer-term sustainable growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –3.4% and the S&P 500 Index was –1.9%. The …

Tea Leaves

June 14, 2021

  Despite continued inflation pressures seen in the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the markets rallied into week’s end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –0.8%%, but the S&P 500 Index was +0.4%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +1.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.462% at Friday’s close …

Tip of the Taper

June 7, 2021

  The weaker than forecast employment report rallied stocks and bonds on Friday on the expectation it would keep the Fed on hold. This was despite the Fed’s announcement it would begin selling the excess corporate bonds and ETFs it purchased during the pandemic to stabilize markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week …

Mix and Mingle

June 1, 2021

  Investors appear to be absorbing the inflation story well as the equity markets all posted positive returns for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week +1.0%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.2%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +2.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.593% at Friday’s close …

Hitting the Road

May 24, 2021

  It was a mixed week in the equity market with the NASDAQ 100 Index in the green and the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –0.4%, the S&P 500 Index was –0.4%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +0.2%. The U.S. …

Take a Breath

May 17, 2021

  The early part of the week saw stocks under pressure from inflation concerns. A rally on Thursday and Friday triggered by the easing of mask wearing guidelines by the Center for Disease Control recouped some of the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week –1.1%, the S&P 500 Index was –1.3%, and …

Employment Debate Heats Up

May 10, 2021

  Bad news in the monthly employment report was good news for stocks on Friday. A much weaker employment report than anticipated was seen as a signal the economy is not as frothy as expected, causing equities to rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week +2.7%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.3%, and …

Are You Ready for the Summer?

May 3, 2021

  The quarterly earnings reporting season is past the half-way point. Of the 303 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings to date for Q1, 87.1% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.3% and prior four quarter average of 75.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average …

Over the Hump

April 26, 2021

  Despite generally positive corporate earnings reports, the equity markets were flattish last week on concerns surrounding proposals from the White House for higher capital gains taxes. Of the 123 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings to date for Q1, 85.4% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a …

Crude Math

April 19, 2021

  The equity markets responded positively to the first week of first quarter earnings. Of the 44 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings to date for the first quarter, 84.1% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week +1.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.4% …

Labor Days

August 31, 2020

  The S&P 500 Index built on its recent record and closed above 3500 for the first time last week. Data indicating that COVID-19 is on the downslope, a supportive Federal Reserve, and a view that the recent second quarter corporate earnings are a likely trough for this cycle all contributed to the optimism. We …

Focus Returns to Corporate Earnings

January 13, 2020

  After a short period of volatility surrounding U.S.—Iran tensions, the market continued its current climb once investors assessed that the situation was deescalating. Geopolitical tensions aside, investors can return their focus to company fundamentals this week as the fourth quarter corporate earnings season kicks off. Twenty-six companies in the S&P 500 Index are scheduled …

Tracking the Consumer

November 11, 2019

  Optimism on U.S.—China trade helped markets extend gains for the third straight week. Stocks are at record levels as the third quarter earnings season slows into its final weeks. Of the 446 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported 3Q earnings, 74% have exceeded expectations, 7% have met expectations and 19% have reported …

Goldilocks

November 4, 2019

  Lots of positives stacked up this past week with the Fed lowering short-term interest rates by 0.25%, a stronger than expected employment report, and continued progress on U.S. – China trade. These along with good third quarter earnings reports pushed the S&P 500 into record territory. The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term target rate …

Fed Stays on Hold

May 6, 2019

  The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) held short-term interest rates steady this week. As mentioned in last week’s Commentary, the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed’s current inflation target is 2% and inflation is currently below that level. This past Friday’s Employment …