Springing Forward

March 15, 2021

  Springing Forward! The equity markets moved to the upside last week. Investors seem to be a little more comfortable with bond yields. Two inflation measures for February, the CPI and PPI, showed an increase in inflation mainly tied to increasing energy prices. The February CPI showed 12-month rate of inflation for consumer goods and …

Goldilocks versus the Bears

March 8, 2021

  Continued upward movement in interest rates pressured stocks during the week, but a strong Employment Report ended the week on a stronger note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +1.8%, the S&P 500 Index was +0.8%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –1.8%. The U.S. economy added 379,000 jobs in February versus an expectation …

Ready to Spend

March 1, 2021

  A sharply steepening yield curve pressured stocks last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was –1.7%, the S&P 500 Index was –2.4%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –4.9%. We are nearing the end of the fourth quarter earnings season with 479 in the S&P 500 Index having reported earnings. Eighty percent of companies …

Frozen

February 22, 2021

  The equity market advance froze this week along with most of the country. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +0.2%, the S&P 500 Index was –0.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –1.6%. With 399 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported fourth quarter earnings, 81.7% have reported earnings above consensus. Continuing the …

Vaccination Acceleration

February 16, 2021

Continued progress on COVID-19 vaccine administration, stimulus, and quarterly earnings lifted equity markets last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +1.1%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.3%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +1.5%. With 372 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported fourth quarter earnings, 82.0% have reported earnings above consensus. Earnings …

Fourth Quarter Comeback

February 8, 2021

  Positive quarterly earnings reports and progress on stimulus talks helped the equity market rebound to start February on a positive note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +3.6%, the S&P 500 Index was +4.3%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +4.9%. We’re just past halfway in the fourth quarter earnings cycle and S&P 500 …

The Long and Short of It

February 1, 2021

  The financial headlines were packed last week with earnings results, short squeezes, and vaccine news. The end results left all major U.S. market averages in the red for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and NASDAQ 100 Index were all down 3.3%. We are almost halfway through the fourth quarter …

Weekly Rebound

January 25, 2021

  The stock market rebounded last week. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +0.6%,  the S&P 500 Index was +2.0%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +4.4%. The flurry of fourth quarter earnings reports continue this week with 120 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. Of the 66 …

Report Cards

January 19, 2021

  The stock market posted its first down week of 2021. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%,  the S&P 500 Index declined 0.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 1.6%. Small cap stocks and oil both posted gains for the week. We start to move deeper into fourth quarter earnings reports …

Best Foot Forward

January 4, 2021

  The world bid farewell to the disruptive year of 2020 and an optimistic hello to 2021. All the uncertainty hasn’t disappeared simply because of the calendar transition, but there is a sense of optimism that 2021 will be a year of positive improvement in the economy, social and family interaction, and healthcare regarding COVID. …

We Made It!

December 28, 2020

  President Trump signed the stimulus and omnibus bill on Sunday. This funds the government through September 30th and provides multiple stimulus measures outlined below in our Dissecting Headlines section. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +0.1%,  the S&P 500 Index was –0.1%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –0.2%. Initial unemployment …

Christmas Stimulus

December 21, 2020

  The initial rollout of an approved coronavirus vaccine helped boost markets last week, though a failure to reach an agreement on a stimulus plan by week’s end closed the week on a down note. The stimulus plan appears to have been resolved during weekend negotiations and a vote is set for as early as …

Injections

December 14, 2020

  The previous week’s stimulus talks seem to have stalled as the week went on. This, coupled with an uptick in Initial Jobless Claims and COVID cases, pushed the equity market down from record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was –0.5%, the S&P 500 Index was –0.9%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was –1.2%. …

Currency

December 7, 2020

  Fresh talk of a potential stimulus bill carried the equity markets into record territory at week’s end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +1.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +1.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +2.2%. The November employment report showed 245,000 new jobs created versus 610,000 in October. The deceleration in job …

‘Tis the Season

November 30, 2020

  The Thanksgiving week mood in the market was generally positive. The Dow Jones Average was +2.2%, the S&P 500 Index was +2.3%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +3.0%. As we head into the last month of 2020, investors are likely to continue the focus on the optimism of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and their …

Comfort Food

November 23, 2020

  Stocks backed-off all-time highs last week as renewed concerns of increasing COVID case loads and restrictions in high-risk states pulled against investor optimism of vaccines on the way. The Dow Jones Average and S&P 500 Index declined 0.7% and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 0.2%. With 474 of 500 companies in the S&P 500 …

A Shot in the Arm

November 16, 2020

  Following a strong post-election day rally the week prior, the S&P 500 Index (+2.2%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+4.2%) followed with a second week of gains while the NASDAQ 100 Index retreated modestly (-1.3%). Much of the differential in performance was driven by sentiment that a potential COVID vaccine was imminent which boosted …

Back to Business

November 9, 2020

  A strong post-election day rally boosted the major equity indices last week. The NASDAQ 100 Index was +9.4%, the S&P 500 Index was +7.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +6.9%. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee kept short-term interest rates steady in its 0% to 0.25% target range. The FOMC acknowledged …

Political Homestretch

November 2, 2020

  Despite a slew of strong company earnings reports, concerns about an accelerating spread of COVID-19 in both the U.S. and abroad pushed stocks lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 6.5%, the S&P 500 Index declined 5.6%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 5.5%. The earnings reporting season is rolling on and …

Peak Week

October 26, 2020

  The third quarter earnings reporting season peaks this week with 180 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. The current third quarter consensus is for earnings to be down 16.7% year-over-year (versus down 18.7% last week and down 21.7%  at the start of earnings season) on a 3.6% decline in revenue. …

Earnings Tsunami

October 19, 2020

  The third quarter reporting season moves into its second big week with 91 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. Of the 49 companies that have already reported, 85.7% have exceeded consensus expectations versus the long-term average of 65.1%. This has raised the current forecast for earnings to be down 18.7% …

Stocktober

October 12, 2020

  Despite see-sawing news over the progress of stimulus talks and President Trump’s COVID recovery, U.S. equity indices managed to post an impressive gain for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +3.3%, the S&P 500 Index was +3.9%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +4.2%. After several weeks of election and COVID-driven news, …

Debatable

September 28, 2020

  The NASDAQ increased 2.0% for the week to snap its three-week losing streak while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 Index has declined 5.8% since the beginning of September and the relatively higher technology weighted NASDAQ 100 Index has declined 7.9% over the same time frame. This Friday we get data from …

Fall

September 21, 2020

  Stocks posted their third consecutive down week. The downside was felt more in the technology and growth-oriented sectors of the market. The S&P 500 Index has declined 5.17% since the beginning of September and the relatively higher technology weighted NASDAQ 100 Index has declined 9.69% over the same time frame. At its recent meeting, …

Steady Feddy

September 14, 2020

  Stocks posted back-to-back down weeks despite reaching record highs near the start of September. The downside was felt more in the technology and growth-oriented sectors of the market. The S&P 500 Index has declined 4.55% since the beginning of September and the relatively higher technology weighted NASDAQ 100 Index ihas declined 8.45% over the …

Speed Bump

September 7, 2020

  After a long recovery back to record levels, the S&P 500 Index hit a speed bump last week, especially among some of the stocks in the information technology and other technology related sectors that had posted large gains since the market bottom in March. Thursday was the worst downside day of the week, down …

Labor Days

August 31, 2020

  The S&P 500 Index built on its recent record and closed above 3500 for the first time last week. Data indicating that COVID-19 is on the downslope, a supportive Federal Reserve, and a view that the recent second quarter corporate earnings are a likely trough for this cycle all contributed to the optimism. We …

Comeback Story

August 24, 2020

  It was a record week as the S&P 500 Index completed its comeback from the COVID-induced selloff in the Spring. On Tuesday,  the S&P 500 closed at 3,389 which exceeded the previous high set back on February 19th and ended the week at 3,397. While the unknown social and economic impact of COVID-19 caused …

Unconventional

August 17, 2020

  It was a quieter week in the earnings reporting cycle with only 16 companies in the S&P 500 Index reporting earnings. The last big announcements come this week with some major retailers reporting earnings. With 457 companies in the S&P 500 having reported second quarter earnings to date, 81% have reported results above consensus. …

Looking Up

August 10, 2020

  Heading into the tail-end of the second quarter earnings season, 441 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings with 82% reporting results above consensus. This is better than the long-term average of 64.9%.  A fourth consecutive better than expected week has moved current consensus for second quarter S&P 500 earnings to down 31.7% …