Comfort Food

November 23, 2020

  Stocks backed-off all-time highs last week as renewed concerns of increasing COVID case loads and restrictions in high-risk states pulled against investor optimism of vaccines on the way. The Dow Jones Average and S&P 500 Index declined 0.7% and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 0.2%. With 474 of 500 companies in the S&P 500 …

A Shot in the Arm

November 16, 2020

  Following a strong post-election day rally the week prior, the S&P 500 Index (+2.2%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+4.2%) followed with a second week of gains while the NASDAQ 100 Index retreated modestly (-1.3%). Much of the differential in performance was driven by sentiment that a potential COVID vaccine was imminent which boosted …

Back to Business

November 9, 2020

  A strong post-election day rally boosted the major equity indices last week. The NASDAQ 100 Index was +9.4%, the S&P 500 Index was +7.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was +6.9%. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee kept short-term interest rates steady in its 0% to 0.25% target range. The FOMC acknowledged …

Political Homestretch

November 2, 2020

  Despite a slew of strong company earnings reports, concerns about an accelerating spread of COVID-19 in both the U.S. and abroad pushed stocks lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 6.5%, the S&P 500 Index declined 5.6%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index declined 5.5%. The earnings reporting season is rolling on and …

Peak Week

October 26, 2020

  The third quarter earnings reporting season peaks this week with 180 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. The current third quarter consensus is for earnings to be down 16.7% year-over-year (versus down 18.7% last week and down 21.7%  at the start of earnings season) on a 3.6% decline in revenue. …

Earnings Tsunami

October 19, 2020

  The third quarter reporting season moves into its second big week with 91 companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings. Of the 49 companies that have already reported, 85.7% have exceeded consensus expectations versus the long-term average of 65.1%. This has raised the current forecast for earnings to be down 18.7% …

Stocktober

October 12, 2020

  Despite see-sawing news over the progress of stimulus talks and President Trump’s COVID recovery, U.S. equity indices managed to post an impressive gain for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +3.3%, the S&P 500 Index was +3.9%, and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +4.2%. After several weeks of election and COVID-driven news, …

Positives and Negatives

October 5, 2020

  All major U.S. equity indices were positive for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was +1.9%, while the S&P 500 Index was +1.5% and the NASDAQ 100 Index was +1.0%. It was a dramatic headline week with the Presidential debate, September Employment Report, and the positive COVID tests for the President and First …

Debatable

September 28, 2020

  The NASDAQ increased 2.0% for the week to snap its three-week losing streak while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 Index has declined 5.8% since the beginning of September and the relatively higher technology weighted NASDAQ 100 Index has declined 7.9% over the same time frame. This Friday we get data from …

Fall

September 21, 2020

  Stocks posted their third consecutive down week. The downside was felt more in the technology and growth-oriented sectors of the market. The S&P 500 Index has declined 5.17% since the beginning of September and the relatively higher technology weighted NASDAQ 100 Index has declined 9.69% over the same time frame. At its recent meeting, …

Steady Feddy

September 14, 2020

  Stocks posted back-to-back down weeks despite reaching record highs near the start of September. The downside was felt more in the technology and growth-oriented sectors of the market. The S&P 500 Index has declined 4.55% since the beginning of September and the relatively higher technology weighted NASDAQ 100 Index ihas declined 8.45% over the …

Speed Bump

September 7, 2020

  After a long recovery back to record levels, the S&P 500 Index hit a speed bump last week, especially among some of the stocks in the information technology and other technology related sectors that had posted large gains since the market bottom in March. Thursday was the worst downside day of the week, down …

Labor Days

August 31, 2020

  The S&P 500 Index built on its recent record and closed above 3500 for the first time last week. Data indicating that COVID-19 is on the downslope, a supportive Federal Reserve, and a view that the recent second quarter corporate earnings are a likely trough for this cycle all contributed to the optimism. We …

Comeback Story

August 24, 2020

  It was a record week as the S&P 500 Index completed its comeback from the COVID-induced selloff in the Spring. On Tuesday,  the S&P 500 closed at 3,389 which exceeded the previous high set back on February 19th and ended the week at 3,397. While the unknown social and economic impact of COVID-19 caused …

Unconventional

August 17, 2020

  It was a quieter week in the earnings reporting cycle with only 16 companies in the S&P 500 Index reporting earnings. The last big announcements come this week with some major retailers reporting earnings. With 457 companies in the S&P 500 having reported second quarter earnings to date, 81% have reported results above consensus. …

Looking Up

August 10, 2020

  Heading into the tail-end of the second quarter earnings season, 441 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings with 82% reporting results above consensus. This is better than the long-term average of 64.9%.  A fourth consecutive better than expected week has moved current consensus for second quarter S&P 500 earnings to down 31.7% …

Trough

August 3, 2020

  Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the U.S. saw a record contraction of 32.9% as the April through June time period was hit by the COVID induced business shutdowns and stay at home orders. While the large decline is sobering, it is also likely to be short-lived as economic data has been improving. …

Earnings and Sales

July 20, 2020

  The second quarter earnings reporting period kicked-off last week. While earnings should be significantly lower for many companies due to the COVID related shutdowns, some favorable results relative to these dire expectations pushed the S&P 500 Index to an up week. Of the 47 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported second …

Show Us Your Cards

July 13, 2020

  This week we will start to see the companies reporting second quarter earnings show us their cards. Due to uncertain outlooks at the height of the COVID back in April, more than 180 companies in the S&P 500 Index declined to provide earnings guidance, so we may have a wider range of outcomes than …

Heavy Lifting

July 6, 2020

  Positive economic data continues to provide an optimistic catalyst to the stock market. The June ISM Manufacturing Index moved back up to 52.6 indicating economic expansion. The June employment report showed nonfarm payrolls of 4.8 million which were well ahead of expectations and built on the 2.7 million jobs created in May. The unemployment …

Half Year, Half Full?

June 29, 2020

  As we mark the halfway point in 2020, we have seen some rapid fluctuations between optimism and pessimism over the course of six months. We entered the year with a strong economy, a robust stock market, and a Federal Reserve that was committed to economic expansion. We have since witnessed the social and economic …

Markets Take a Pause

June 15, 2020

  A combination of concern regarding a re-acceleration of COVID-19 cases and a natural tendency for a pause once the market regained its beginning year levels resulted in a decline in major market averages last week. The Federal Reserve which has pledged economic support throughout the COVID-19 crisis left short-term interest rates unchanged near zero …

Down and Back

June 11, 2020

  While the economy still has room for improvement, the stock market has staged an impressive recovery. As a supplement to our Weekly Market Commentary, here is an additional report outlining our thoughts around the 2020 market decline and recent recovery. The U.S. economy is in a recession in the first half of 2020, but …

Up Off the Mat

June 8, 2020

  While the economy still has room for improvement, the stock market has staged an impressive recovery. Coming off the March low, the S&P 500 Index has advanced 45%. The containment of COVID-19, Federal Reserve’s actions to provide liquidity into the financial system, and continued incremental positive news on the opening of the economy have …

Consumers, Start your Engines

June 1, 2020

  Despite the widespread economic displacement from the COVID-19 lockdown, an optimistic case can be made for a rebound in consumer activity over the next few months. The U.S. consumer accounts for approximately two-thirds of economic activity, so a healthy consumer is the engine of the U.S. economy. With the continued phase-in of activity, workers …

Risk On / Risk Off

February 24, 2020

  Continued spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) led stocks to the downside late last week. News of the virus also spreading outside of China to countries such as Italy has brought additional concern to investors trying to understand the potential economic impact of the outbreak. We view the issue as transitory. While the first quarter …

Gone Viral

January 27, 2020

  The enthusiasm from the Phase One U.S. – China trade agreement was quickly tempered as fear of the economic impact of the Coronavirus on global growth seeped into the markets. Major market averages saw their first weekly decline for the year. Despite the headline health scare, corporate earnings reporting season rolls on. With 85 …

Off to the Races

January 6, 2020

  Momentum from year-end continued into the new year until U.S. – Iran tension reached a boiling point. The typical Middle East worry trade followed with oil, gold, Treasury bonds, bond proxies, and defense industry stocks to the positive in an otherwise down market. The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December meeting. The …

Working

December 9, 2019

  The stock market struggled most of the week but staged a comeback rally on Friday on the better than expected employment report for November. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 266,000 in November, well above expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.6% to 3.5%. This marks the 21st consecutive …