Advances and Declines

March 7, 2022

  Russia’s continued advance into Ukraine caused a market decline for the week, despite a strong employment report for February and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that he supports a 0.25% increase in the Fed funds rate this month rather than 0.50%. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -1.2%, the Dow was -1.2%, …

Spoils of War

February 28, 2022

  Downward market pressure early in the week reversed once the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Markets began climbing the Wall of Worry we mentioned last week. The situation in Ukraine may continue to dominate headlines this week, but the U.S. economy comes back centerstage with the February Employment Report on Friday. President Biden is …

Wall of Worry

February 21, 2022

  Concern over tensions between Russia-Ukraine, and impact of inflation and Fed actions in the U.S. have built a wall of worry year-to-date that the equity markets have yet to be able to climb. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -1.5%, the Dow was -1.8%, and the NASDAQ was -1.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury …

Where is the Love?

February 14, 2022

  Geopolitical tension over Russia-Ukraine knocked back the equity markets on Friday afternoon. This brought a two-week win streak to an end for the major averages. The S&P 500 Index ended the week – 1.8%, the Dow was -1.0%, and the NASDAQ was -3.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.918% at Friday’s …

Job Growth Surprises

February 7, 2022

  The reaction to multiple earnings reports this past week was a rollercoaster. Overall, the markets posted positive back-to-back weeks due to more upside than downside earnings reports and a better-than-expected January employment report. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +1.6%, the Dow was +1.1%, and the NASDAQ was +1.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury …

Earnings Buoy Markets

January 31, 2022

  Buoyed by several strong corporate earnings reports, the major U.S. equity indices all closed the week higher for the first time this year. The S&P 500 Index ended the week +0.8%, the Dow was +1.3%, and the NASDAQ was +0.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.778% at Friday’s close versus 1.771% …

Still Struggling

January 24, 2022

  The early year market retreat extended to a third week. The S&P 500 Index ended the week -3.9%, the Dow was -3.3%, and the NASDAQ was -4.9%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.771% at Friday’s close versus 1.793% the previous week. Some of the downturn can be attributed to the high …

Fast Forward

January 10, 2022

  The equity markets struggled the first week of the new year after the minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting, which were released this past Wednesday, indicated the Fed could potentially accelerate its actions to slow bond buying, raise short-term rates, and shrink its balance sheet. The news sent equities down for the week …

Setting the Stage

January 3, 2022

  The U.S. equity markets closed out the year with a positive week. The S&P 500 Index was higher for the week by +0.9%, the Dow was +1.1%, and the NASDAQ was +0.1%. All three major U.S. indices closed the year with solid double-digit gains. Two particular asset class winners this year were oil and …

Last Hand of 21

December 27, 2021

  It was a mostly optimistic holiday week, although COVID-19 was still a background factor. The S&P 500 Index was higher for the week by +2.3%, the Dow was +1.7%, and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.492% at Thursday’s close versus 1.407% the previous week. The COVID omicron …

Fed Up

December 20, 2021

  The Federal Reserve meeting provided a roadmap for 2022 monetary policy which we think was favorably received by the markets, however, concern surrounding the omicron variant returned following increases in positive testing across several countries. The net effect had the S&P 500 Index lower for the week by -1.9%, the Dow was -1.7% and …

Looking for Santa

December 13, 2021

  Concern surrounding the omicron variant subsided last week and it helped the equity markets bounce off support levels. The S&P 500 Index finished the week +3.8%, the Dow was +4.0% and the NASDAQ was +3.9%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.478% at Friday’s close versus 1.356% the previous week. The Federal …

Laboring

December 6, 2021

  Continued concerns from the potential impact of the omicron variant, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the Fed may need to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases, and a lackluster employment report drove a decline across equity markets. The S&P 500 Index finished the week -1.2%, the Dow was -0.8% and the NASDAQ …

Reservations

November 29, 2021

  The equity markets declined during the holiday shortened week. The steep decline came on Friday following concerns that travel restrictions from the latest COVID variant could negatively impact global growth. The S&P 500 Index finished the week -2.2%, the Dow was -2.0% and the NASDAQ was -3.3%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased …

Checking Sentiment

November 15, 2021

  Following a five-week rally, the S&P 500 Index took a pause last week. The S&P 500 finished the week -0.3%, the Dow was -0.6% and the NASDAQ was -1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.570% at Friday’s close versus 1.455% the previous week. Current forecast for the S&P 500 Index is …

Fed Game Plan

November 8, 2021

  Confirmation from the Federal Reserve that the economy has reached a level improvement that allows a reduction in COVID-era policy accommodation rallied the S&P 500 Index to all-time highs last week. The S&P 500 finished the week +2.0%, the Dow was +1.4% and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased …

‘Tis the Season

November 1, 2021

  All four weeks in October were positive in the equity markets. This past week, the S&P 500 was +1.3%, the Dow was +0.4% and the NASDAQ was +3.2%. Oil snapped its multi-week rally, finishing down 0.2%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.554% at Friday’s close versus 1.653% the previous week. Current …

Stocktober

October 25, 2021

  Corporate earnings led the market again last week. Of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings for the quarter, 83.8% have reported earnings above consensus estimates. The S&P 500 was +1.7%, the Dow was +1.1% and the NASDAQ was +1.4%. Oil continued its multi-week rally, +1.8%. The U.S. 10-year …

Rallying Back

October 18, 2021

  A good set of corporate earnings reports and economic data rallied the equity markets in the second half of the week. The S&P 500 was +1.8%, the Dow was +1.6% and the NASDAQ was +2.2%. Oil continued its multi-week rally, +3.7%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.574% at Friday’s close versus …

Good Enough to Taper

October 11, 2021

  The announcement of an agreement to temporarily increase the U.S. debt ceiling helped markets recover toward week’s end, then a lackluster employment report pushed markets down on Friday. The S&P 500 was +0.8%, the Dow was +1.3% and the NASDAQ was +0.2%. Oil was again the winner for the week, closing +4.6%. The U.S. …

Government Wrangling

October 4, 2021

  Anxiety in Washington over the debt ceiling and spending bills sent the equity markets lower last week. The U.S. government looks to avert a shutdown as a continuing resolution was passed to fund the government through December 3rd. Meanwhile the wrangling continues over the debt ceiling, infrastructure, and budget bills. The S&P 500 was …

Ports in a Storm

September 27, 2021

  Equity markets dropped last Monday on China credit concerns, then rallied back with help of a steady hand from the Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting midweek. The S&P 500 was +0.5%, the Dow was +0.6%, and the NASDAQ was flat. Oil continued its recent climb. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to …

Equinox

September 20, 2021

  The equity markets continued their slow downward move last week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.7% and the Dow was flat. Small capitalization stocks and oil bucked the trend. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.363% at Friday’s close versus 1.343% the previous week. Nine companies in …

Slow Leak

September 13, 2021

  The equity markets had a slow leak over the short, four-day trading week last week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –1.7%, the NASDAQ –1.4% and the Dow –2.1%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.343% at Friday’s close versus 1.326% the previous week. With second quarter earnings reporting complete, the …

Laboring

September 7, 2021

  A well below forecast employment report may allow the Federal Reserve to be judicious when it decides to start tapering monthly bond purchases. The August employment report showed an increase of only 235,000 net new jobs versus expectations of 725,000 to 750,000 jobs. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +0.6%, the NASDAQ +1.4% …

Calming Effects

August 30, 2021

  The greatly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday appeared to have a calming and positive impact on markets. He reiterated the comments of several Fed officials who said that economic conditions have improved, and the Fed can begin tapering its monthly bond purchases some time …

Dog Days

August 23, 2021

  A geopolitical crisis in Afghanistan and hints from the Federal Reserve that it could soon begin tapering monthly bond purchases combined to lead the equity markets to a negative week. The S&P 500 Index closed the week –0.5%, the NASDAQ –0.3% and the Dow –1.0%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.260% …

Letting off Steam

August 16, 2021

  While inflation sparked by the rapid economic rebound is still elevated, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports may suggest the surge is losing some steam. We are not out of the woods yet, but the concern of runaway inflation may be overdone. The S&P 500 Index closed the …

Jawboning

August 9, 2021

  Equity markets advanced last week. There was a significant amount of jawboning regarding an end to the Fed’s monthly bond buying programs and 10-year Treasury bond yields increased following a strong July employment report. The S&P 500 Index closed the week +1.0%, the NASDAQ +1.0% and the Dow +0.8%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond …